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Greg Siskind on Immigration Law and Policy

India, China EB-2 Numbers Advance a Year

Rating: 3 votes, 5.00 average.

A surprisingly (and worrying) drop in EB-2 filings in the EB-2 category for advance degree professionals (masters degrees and higher) will jump another full year in February to January 2010 filings. That's a two and half year advance since the beginning of this fiscal year in October. The State Department is warning that its being aggressive in moving up numbers to spur demand and that numbers could stop advancing or even retrogress very soon. So if your number has become current, don't dawdle. By the way, I say worrying because knowledge workers at this level should be our prime target group for immigrating. Strong demand for EB-2 visas is needed if the US is to remain at the top.

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Comments

  1. Sid's Avatar
    At this point absolutely no one, including the USCIS and DOS know how many people are eligible to apply for I-485. Does this movement mean that everyone with PDs before Jan 2010 have been approved? Obviously not. Their files will collect dust for 4-10 months before USCIS takes some action. The DOS will try to pressurize the USCIS to do some work and not waste anymore visas by aggressively moving the dates forward. There's a chance that the movement will continue for another 3-4 months. By that time, they should collect enough new applications to keep USCIS busy for a couple of years. Those who become eligible should take advantage of this opportunity and apply soon. As a July 2007 filer, I can say for sure that applying for AOS doesn't mean that you'll get approved anytime soon. Retrogression is almost guaranteed by Oct 2012, unless of course HR 3012 becomes the law.
  2. JoeF's Avatar
    People who can file I-485s can at least get EADs, and even if the PD retrogresses, that would be a huge improvement.
    Also, this movement shows that HR3012 is not even needed for EB2. HR3012 is now for EB3 only, and that makes the "highly educated" stuff even more of a misnomer. Lots of qualified EB3 people have ported to EB2 by now. That leaves people who didn't grow in their career as EB3 only. My guess is that this movement will make it harder to advance HR3012, since the backlog of highly educated people is significantly reduced already.
  3. George Chell's Avatar
    "Lots of qualified EB3 people have ported to EB2 by now."

    I think there is a deliberate policy to push the EB2 and EB1s to get a Phd and apply for EB1 or the O Visa after they are awarded the doctorate. There is a feeling that there aren't too many Americans that have the mental capacity to get a PhD, which I think is totally false...I think they are trying to do this to offset huge cuts in education budgets which shortchanges American students at the high school level. But, the antis just give lip service to training Americans..their goal is more sinister and I have discussed the issues before and need not rehash it here!
  4. JC's Avatar
    "That leaves people who didn't grow in their career as EB3 only."

    What do you mean exactly? There are people stuck in EB3 queue because of the issues associated in getting a better employment after you've been on H1B visa for over 6 years.
  5. JoeF's Avatar
    "There are people stuck in EB3 queue because of the issues associated in getting a better employment"

    What issues exactly?
    Getting another job is never easy. But compared to lingering in EB3, the effort would well be worth it. Unless of course, the people haven't progressed in their careers for years...
    Good and high-skilled people, what the title of HR3012 claims they are, should be able to find new jobs, even in a mediocre economic situation. Or, the title of HR3012 may indeed be a misnomer. Take your pick...
  6. JoeF's Avatar
    "I think there is a deliberate policy to push the EB2 and EB1s to get a Phd and apply for EB1 or the O Visa after they are awarded the doctorate. There is a feeling that there aren't too many Americans that have the mental capacity to get a PhD, which I think is totally false"

    EB1-EA and O would be mostly for faculty. My friends with PhDs who went into industry usually went for EB2, or EB2-NIW.
    In graduate school in the technical disciplines, Americans are nowadays the minority. That's not because they don't have the mental capacity, but because they don't want to do the hard work required to get a PhD. That whole thing starts in high school, where people good at math are often outcasts. The term "Nerd" was/is a derogatory term. Nowadays, the nerds rule, though, at Google et al. Revenge of the nerds
  7. Nurse Waiting's Avatar
    "That whole thing starts in high school, where people good at math are often outcasts. The term "Nerd" was/is a derogatory term. Nowadays, the nerds rule, though, at Google et al. Revenge of the nerds "

    Watching too many movies and forming opinions?
  8. JoeF's Avatar
    Certainly not watching too many movies.
    Personal experience. I am a nerd and proud of it.
  9. RR's Avatar
    @JoeF

    "What issues exactly?
    Getting another job is never easy. But compared to lingering in EB3, the effort would well be worth it. Unless of course, the people haven't progressed in their careers for years...
    Good and high-skilled people, what the title of HR3012 claims they are, should be able to find new jobs, even in a mediocre economic situation. Or, the title of HR3012 may indeed be a misnomer. Take your pick..."

    And what would be the solution if majority of EB3 folks port to EB2, and the whole backlog situation is re-enacted in EB2? By your reckoning, everyone should now try to get into EB1. What happens when the backlog is shifted upwards to EB1 by mass porting?

    Would HR3012 be fair then?
  10. JoeF's Avatar
    @RR: My assertion is that the "high-skilled" EB3 people already have ported to EB2. So, the situation with EB3 wouldn't get repeated. So, the hypothetical situation you ask about wouldn't even happen.
    Essentially, HR3012 is a bill about certain EB3 people who for whatever reason didn't progress in their career. It may sound cruel, but people who, since 2001 or 2002 or 2003 are in an entry level position aren't all that "high-skilled."
    I think that with EB2 progressing so fast, the chances for HR3012 or similar bills have been diminished significantly.
    High-skilled people from India and China currently have a 2-year backlog, which doesn't justify a bill like HR3012.
  11. RR's Avatar
    @JoeF

    "My assertion is that the "high-skilled" EB3 people already have ported to EB2. So, the situation with EB3 wouldn't get repeated. So, the hypothetical situation you ask about wouldn't even happen."

    You don't really answer the question, do you? How do you know the EB3 situation won't get repeated in EB2? The only reason that EB2 is moving fast right now is because of the lean years economically between 2008-2010. What if the economy was strong and EB2 filings were on par with previous years? That will happen when the economy starts picking up steam. You can be sure backlogs will build up. I can readily point to the IC people with late 2007 PDs. How long did they have to wait to file their 485s? I'll give you a hint. It wasn't 2 years (since you don't seem to have any issues with a 2 year wait for Indians and Chinese). It was 4+ years.

    So, how exactly do you guarantee that backlogs will not be an issue in EB2?

    "I think that with EB2 progressing so fast, the chances for HR3012 or similar bills have been diminished significantly."

    Your statement is based on the assumption that EB2 will keep moving "so fast" indefinitely. We both know that's not the case, and retrogression is a distinct, if not near-certain, possibility. The latest visa bulletin states that, in case you don't believe me.

    "High-skilled people from India and China currently have a 2-year backlog, which doesn't justify a bill like HR3012."

    Really? Having a 2 year backlog for India and China when everyone else gets a free pass time-wise is justified? Please elaborate on that.
  12. Sid's Avatar
    "High-skilled people from India and China currently have a 2-year backlog, which doesn't justify a bill like HR3012."

    Idiotic statement. Being able to apply for AOS is not the same as getting the GC in hand. I was able to apply for AOS in July 2007 with a EB2-I PD of Jan 2006 but only got the GC in Aug 2010. That's fairly common because of a thing called retrogression. Since I know that JoeF knows a thing or two about it, I can only conclude that he's deliberately trying to mislead people with these kind of stupid comments.
  13. Sa's Avatar
    "Idiotic statement. Being able to apply for AOS is not the same as getting the GC in hand. I was able to apply for AOS in July 2007 with a EB2-I PD of Jan 2006 but only got the GC in Aug 2010. That's fairly common because of a thing called retrogression. Since I know that JoeF knows a thing or two about it, I can only conclude that he's deliberately trying to mislead people with these kind of stupid comments."

    ROW people dont even have to wait even a minute, Country caps have no place in EB immigration. Talent should be treated equally wherver it comes from.

    We all know that its another talking point from hate India crowd to kill 3012.
  14. Sa's Avatar
    "High-skilled people from India and China currently have a 2-year backlog, which doesn't justify a bill like HR3012."

    Yes , Every one was current in 2007 July too and people can apply for waivers while living the country which does not justify bills like Dream either. All illegal immigrants can get either get married to a citizens or goto college to obtain advanced degrees too.

  15. Sid's Avatar
    "Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. "

    The key line in the visa bulletin is this. People often ignore this part - "or USCIS processing increases significantly". It was only in June 2011 that the dates moved beyond July 2007, which means that the USCIS has had only 7 months to process new applications from July 2007 to March 2009 (Dec Visa bulletin). The USCIS doesn't have the best track record in terms of processing AOS quickly.
  16. JoeF's Avatar
    @Sid:
    Retrogression in 2007 was inevitable. But here it doesn't seem to be, since the PD moved 2 years forward in 2 months.
    And the demand data so far indicates that the PD may advance further.
    Ergo, my assertions stand. HR3012 is not for "high-skilled" people, contrary to the title of the bill. "Idiotic statements" are rather statements claiming otherwise...
    I suggest you watch your language. Thank you.
  17. Sid's Avatar
    @JoeF

    I will not hold back against racists. Your line of reasoning that it's ok for skilled Indians to wait longer than others is racism, plain and simple. Your denial to admit that you're a racist does not change that.

    We'll find out by the end of the year if you have the dignity to admit that you were wrong about retrogression.
  18. Legal and no longer waiting's Avatar
    "All illegal immigrants can get either get married to a citizens or goto college to obtain advanced degrees too. "

    Really? Beside the fact that marrying a citizen is not going to get you a green card if you entered illegally and obtaining an advanced degree is not going to get you anything (and you think you would know as half of you are whining that you can't get green cards even while being legally and working and having advanced degrees).. you are saying that ALL illegal immigrants can do either? Even a 55 year old person married for 30 years with 8 grades of education? What are you smoking?
  19. George Chell's Avatar
    Legal and no longer waiting:

    He may have meant people legally present in this country such as ones on student visas. A staggering 75% of foreign spouses who marry US citizens have a college degree. In one of the tech sites, an American was furiously arguing that there were more than 35,000 foreign techies in the US as he sees corporations only hiring them in the Silicon Valley. He was right. Many of them are new immigrants who got in through marrying US citizens. Four years ago one of the nurses down south was complaining that there are more Filipina nurses who had recently migrated into the US than allowed through the nursing visa quota. She was right...most of them are Filipinas married to US citizens. Marriage is the easiest way for a student or a nurse to enter this country on a permanent basis. More skills in the US are supplied through marriage to foreigners than through the regular employment visa channels, and I am pretty sure that drives the racists at FAIR, Center for Immigration Studies, Numbers USA and the Manhattan Institute crazy...I am pretty sure that they are browsing through websites such as Speaking of China and literally throwing up.

    Getting a PhD is the next easiest way to stay on especially if it is from a Top 30 school. EB1 or O visas. That may be a deliberate policy to force more foreigners into PhDs where they either fund on their own or get a corporation to fund their research. A research published by Professor Maskus at the University of Colorado in 2008 suggested that foreign STEM students contributed significantly to university and industry patenting than US students. Hence, using the Maskus study as a base they are forcing foreign students to go into PhD. Dont know whether it is a wise policy, but I heard that before the 1965 law, the universities were doing exactly what college football teams do today...not hire the best, but the person connected with the university...and hence there was a tendency to hire their own PhDs and preferably people who have grown up within the state.
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