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Greg Siskind on Immigration Law and Policy

DREAM ACT COULD COME BACK TO HAUNT GOP

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I've been blogging about this for years, but the GOP still can't see that its tilt to being the anti-immigrant party is incredibly dangerous for its long-term prospects. The LA Times reports on this today. Some in the party suffer from the delusion that Latino voters don't care about immigration or, incredibly, actually agree with their positions. Polls show they overwhelmingly are concerned about the subject and they have been moving to the Democratic Party in droves over the last five years.


When the recession is over (and its looking like 2011 will be a much improved year for the US economy), the anti-immigrant hangover will begin to settle in as Republicans running in 2012 start to realize that they have a major handicap having to write off virtually the entire Latino community. Considering they are now America's largest minority group at 47 million and considering that a high percentage are US citizens, the GOP strategy is suicidal.


Today's three page story in the New York Times should also concern GOP politicians. The story crunches new US Census data and talks about how immigrants are now favoring suburban and rural communities over cities for the first time ever. These are Republican strongholds. Probably not for long. 


Perhaps the GOP has moved so far in to the anti-immigrant camp that it sees reversing course with Latinos as impossible. That might explain why their opposition to the DREAM Act is so fierce and they are now pushing to repeal the 14th Amendment's birthright citizenship provision. They've looked at the electoral math and know they are going to go the way of the Whig Party unless they can somehow change the game.

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  1. hispanic's Avatar
    You Wrote: " GOP still can't see that its tilt to being the anti-immigrant party is incredibly dangerous for its long-term prospects".
    I think it it has been quite obvious for some time that GOP is anti-immigrant. Now they have the Congress (starting January). Do you think that Hispanics care about illigal immigrants, or probably they simply forget everything once they get their citizenship. I do not think this dinamics will change even in the future. People become citizens and that is the end of it for many.
  2. Greg Siskind's Avatar
    Hispanic - The proof is in the data. Latino voters used to split their vote largely in the same way as the general population. Since 2006, most are now voting Democratic. That's been the case now for three election cycles.
  3. Another Voice's Avatar
    I think the retardicans will try to shot for the number that George W got...the " 40% of the Hispanic vote" It will be nearly impossible with the Tea baggers in there....and the extreme right wingers. But I can see people like Huckabee, Romney and Barbour softening the rhetoric even if in reality they do not care about Immigration reform. I think Hispanics absolutely care about Immigration because even as some become citizens, they have a friend or family member caught in the nightmare of living in the US illegally, they experience that part of life everyday through them. But you can see that the republicans are not dumb either, in this year's congressional races they sent quite a few Hispanic candidates and other minority candidates as republicans a lot of the won. That is how they will try to get around their problem put Hispanics and minorities against their own, you can always count on a few sell outs to join the republican party and portray them as a " diverse party" but let's face it when it comes to the presidential candidates they will not be able to do that...
  4. George Chell's Avatar
    "When the recession is over (and its looking like 2011 will be a much improved year for the US economy), the anti-immigrant hangover will begin to settle in as Republicans running in 2012 start to realize that they have a major handicap having to right off virtually the entire Latino community."

    They will still continue along the same lines. If the economy does grow over 4% you are looking at unemployment rate below 8% come August 2012 and an Obama landslide. Conversely, if the economy goes into a double dip, GOP will win no matter what!

    "Hispanic - The proof is in the data. Latino voters used to split their vote largely in the same way as the general population. Since 2006, most are now voting Democratic. That's been the case now for three election cycles."

    GOP is anti-immigrant, and I am convinced that many are anti-non-white immigration. Many tea baggers do not recognize the legitimacy of interracial marriages and people like Sessions represent this group. Do you think Sessions would have blocked the Frischke private bill had his wife been white? I dont think so. However, Dems have not pushed too hard. Some are appealing to the same racist elements that Sessions appeals to. However, many others fear that the moment the Hispanics get what they want, they will walk away from the Dems and return to the GOP fold based on pseudo-family values and other frauds perpetuated by the party. That is a real fear among many Dems and that is why they throwing bits and pieces of reform like the Dream Act for consideration!

  5. Another Voice's Avatar
    "However, many others fear that the moment the Hispanics get what they want, they will walk away from the Dems and return to the GOP fold based on pseudo-family values and other frauds perpetuated by the party."

    If you look at the example of prop 187 in California you have a clear example where republicans became a damaged brand for generations of Hispanics despite the "family values" deal. I think that will replicate country wide. People like Jeb Bush and Karl Rove along with the few republicans in the house that voted in favor of DREAM have been stating this for some time now...the republicans can't bring themselves to accept the demographic changes in the country. But in their favor they have that minorities still have a shy participation in the elections compared to their potential.
  6. My 2 cents's Avatar
    The economy is not going to improve in 2011& the unemployment will remain at 9 or 10% unless there is some sort of immigration reform especially on the legal front & the Dream Act. The rich will sit on the money saved from the tax cut extension, there won't be enough jobs created to make a dent at the unemployment numbers.


  7. George Chell's Avatar
    "If you look at the example of prop 187 in California you have a clear example where republicans became a damaged brand for generations of Hispanics despite the "family values" deal. I think that will replicate country wide."

    That is right! The Dems dont have to pass anything comprehensive. Just show that they are trying to push legislation and the GOP is blocking it...that should be enough for the Dems to keep Hispanics in their fold!
  8. George Chell's Avatar
    "The rich will sit on the money saved from the tax cut extension, there won't be enough jobs created to make a dent at the unemployment numbers."

    No! They will create jobs abroad and move jobs abroad. This is what is happening in Japan, but the Japanese are hell bent on committing economic suicide!
  9. Another Voice's Avatar
    "The Dems dont have to pass anything comprehensive. Just show that they are trying to push legislation and the GOP is blocking it...that should be enough for the Dems to keep Hispanics in their fold!"

    That can only carry you so far...they already milked that cow enough these folks are as frustrated as anyone else, at some point you have to come thru with something. Plus why would you let the opportunity to put this group away in your column once and for all....
  10. George Chell's Avatar
    "Plus why would you let the opportunity to put this group away in your column once and for all...."

    The problem is they are not sure that the Hispanics will stay with the Dems after they get what they want. The conservative and light skinned ones will probably go to the GOP splitting the Hispanic coalition in half!
  11. Hans Von der Fost's Avatar
    Democrats = Republicans

    Members of Congress only represent the interests of the people who financed their campaigns (i.e. financial institutions). Besides that, the American populace is ignorant, easy to manipulate and subdue.

    Illegal immigration as a "controversial" issue will disappear as soon as the national economy collapses, more specifically the demise of the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency and the emergence of a new monetary system (coming pretty soon).

    This scenario will facilitate the social-judicial-economic integration of the North American states (Canada, US and Mexico); therefore, undocumented Mexicans and/or Canadians living in the United States -approximately 20 million individuals- won't have the necessity of adjusting their legal status since they will be able to work in the US with their current national documents -and that's the ultimate goal of the real powers behind the ongoing turmoil = multinational corporations.

    Consequently, the remaining undocumented aliens from countries outside this de facto union (about 5 million) will become the target of any sort of legislation dealing with immigration reform (easy to pass without too much drama).
  12. Another Voice's Avatar
    "The problem is they are not sure that the Hispanics will stay with the Dems after they get what they want. The conservative and light skinned ones will probably go to the GOP splitting the Hispanic coalition in half!"

    Not sure about this George, I think the vast majority of Hispanics will remain with the dems, the republicans can always count on the Cuban vote in FL and maybe some vote in TX.
  13. Another Voice's Avatar
    "Illegal immigration as a "controversial" issue will disappear as soon as the national economy collapses, more specifically the demise of the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency and the emergence of a new monetary system "
    Well since the Euro seems to be on it's way to disappearing I think the dollar will remain the reserve currency. The Germans will not continue subsidizing the PIGS and other "second world countries".
    "This scenario will facilitate the social-judicial-economic integration of the North American states (Canada, US and Mexico); therefore, undocumented Mexicans and/or Canadians living in the United States -approximately 20 million individuals- won't have the necessity of adjusting their legal status since they will be able to work in the US with their current national documents -and that's the ultimate goal of the real powers behind the ongoing turmoil = multinational corporations."
    Given that the EU experiment has miserably fail I seriously doubt that the US will follow suit here, but fixing immigration makes sense and has always helped the US in the last 200+ years.
  14. George Chell's Avatar
    "Not sure about this George, I think the vast majority of Hispanics will remain with the dems, the republicans can always count on the Cuban vote in FL and maybe some vote in TX."

    That is if the leopard (GOP) does not change its spots.

  15. S. R.'s Avatar
    I have been reading about it for last 4 years that Republican party is going to suffer badly due to their stance on legalizing Immigrants. I think this is all crap. What has happened ... nothing. Infact, Republicans have won significantly in the last elections after getting wiped out in 2008. I think, just hoping, hoping and hoping is worse than not hoping for any positve results. I have 2 kids who came here to USA legally when they were 2 and 5. We lived here legally from 1995 to 2004, and Our I-140 got approved, and we were waiting for our green cards. And we received a letter from Immgigration that they approved us by mistake. We appealed and appealed. and finally, because we did not have resources to go to court. We have been living here illigally.
    Hoping for last four years something will be done by Democrats. Now, it was the last hope that atleast our kids will get legalized by Dream ACt. I dont think anything is going to happen on this anymore. Its all politics. During Bush Administration, Democrats could have got it passed. Even everybody could have been legalized. But, Democrats played polictics to win the Presidency at the expense of Illigal immigrants. They won the presidency, what did the illegal immigrant got nothing.. just false hope and promises. I think. Republicans are better than Democrats. They dont want to legalize Immigrants, and they are honest and upfront about it. Whereas Democrats are hypocrites, they just want Political advantages out of Illegal immigrants.
    In my opinion, during next 5 years, if there is any hope for Illegals , it would be a Slavery Immigration. Something, like if young immigrants would have to serve 10 years in Military or in the farms, and older immigrants will have to serve 25 years. May be they would be considered after that to get legals in this counnty.
    I will advise the Politicians to get honest, so that the illigal immigrants start moving back to where they came from. May be some of them would be able to see their Old parents, relatives, and friends before they die.
  16. gg's Avatar
    dream act senate vote scheduled saturday ...
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