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Greg Siskind on Immigration Law and Policy

DECEMBER 2010 VISA BULLETIN RUNDOWN

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Here's my take on the new Visa Bulletin


First, bad news for Dominicans. Separate cutoffs have now been established for the Family First and 2B preference categories which are now earlier than the worldwide dates. Family First is 01 JUN 2004 and 2B is 01 JAN 2002. Also, Indian numbers are pretty bad again with most categories stalled. Mexico is the only bright spot with some strong improvements in the employment categories. 


Family 1st- no improvement for most countries; three week advance for Mexico.


Family 2A - world numbers jump from June 2010 to August 2010; Mexico stalled at March 2010. 


Family 2B - world numbers stalled at June 2005; Mexico stalled at June 1992. Philippines numbers jump 30 months to September 2002.


Family 3rd - Most countries stalled at June 2002. Philippines retrogresses to from 01 March 1995 to July 1992 (apologies for the earlier misstatement on this one).


Family 4th - Most countries stalled at January 2002. One week advance for Mexico to 22 December 1995. The Philippines retrogresses from 1991 to 01 January 1988.


Employment 1st - still current in all categories.


Employment 2nd - weak movement for India and China; just a two week improvement for China (08 June 2006) and stalled again for India (8 May 2006).


Employment 3rd - modest movement; one month advance for most countries to 22 February 2005; two week advance for China to 08 December 2003; India is stalled at 22 January 2002. Mexico jumps 13 months to 01 July 2002 and the Philippines jumps a month to 22 February 2005.


Employment 3rd Other Workers - three week improvement for most countries to 22 April 2003; India stalled at 22 January 2002; Mexico jumps 13 months to 01 July 2002; 


Employment 4th - still current in all categories.


Employment 5th - still current in all categories.


 

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Comments

  1. Jim's Avatar
    "Employment-based: At this time it is unlikely that there will be any cut-off dates in the Employment First preference during the coming months. It also appears unlikely that it will be necessary to establish a cut-off date other than those already in effect for the Second preference category. Cut-off dates continue to apply to the China and India Second preference categories due to heavy demand.

    Based on current indications of demand, the best case scenarios for cut-off date movement each month during the coming months are as follows:

    Employment Second:

    China: none to two weeks

    India: no movement

    Employment Third:

    Worldwide: three to six weeks

    China: one to three weeks

    India: none to two weeks"

    ------------

    It seems it is projected that EB2 India and China are going to stall in the coming months. I would not be surprised if EB2 India even retrogresses in the coming months if people keeps porting their EB3 cases to EB2.

    This will be disastrous for all EB3, including those Indians that remains in EB3 since they won't be getting any spillovers anymore.

    FB is disastrous too.

    Visa recapture is definitely needed and done in the lameduc session!! Again, it's not adding any visas but just recycling the unused visas that were supposed to be given in past years but because of inefficiencies on the part of USCIS it weren't rightfully given on time. Multiply that for several years and the backlog got longer that it should. In short, the current severe backlog is in big part because of the immigration system's inefficiencies.

    One way to correct it is to recapture the unused visas so that it can be given rightfully given to the rightful beneficiaries. Not only will that correct the current situation but it would only be fair since those visas are rightfully theirs anyway if it were distributed on time.
  2. George Chell's Avatar
    No movement = jobs movement to other countries. I think I am going to try and collect data on job movement to other countries as a result of no movement in employment categories. Meanwhile, this story may be of interest...

    http://www.ocregister.com/news/state-276060-students-tuition.html
  3. Alex's Avatar
    Hi Greg,

    According to the Visa Bulletin link, the Philippines F3 has retrogressed to 01 Jul 92. I really hope that's a mistake on the State Department's part.
  4. Greg Siskind's Avatar
    Apologies Alex for the mistake on that item. It's corrected and, yes, unfortunately the dates have retrogressed.
  5. Jim's Avatar
    More good news for DREAM Act: http://americasvoiceonline.org/blog/entry/breaking_rep.diaz-balart_r-fl_calls_for_a_dream_act_vote/

    There seems to be momentum building up for the DREAM Act. Good for them. Hope it passes. Now, if only they have the sense to attach a visa recapture then it would be more meaty. Hope someone is lobbying for exactly that.

  6. USC's Avatar
    This visa bulletin represents all that is wrong not just with the immigration system but our government in general. I cite from the bulletin:

    The Phillipines F1 (Sons of USCs) is at 01 April 1997

    while

    The Phillipines F2B (Sons of LPRs) is at 01 March 2000.

    Is it the intent of Congress that the Sons/Daughters of LPRs receive preference over those of USCs? If not, the refusal of Congress to act on CIR represents a complete abdication of responsibility/duty.

    PS I was under the impression that the Sons of USC, under such circumstances, could apply under F2A. Perhaps, Greg might want to comment as to why that is not happening.


  7. Rajani's Avatar
    Will anyone be lobbying to attach Nurse Bill to Dream Act. American economy is improving and there is defenitely going to be accute shortage of RNs. Republicans were always in favour of releasing special visa for RNs and PTs. Hope Democrats will support their effort
  8. Hopeful's Avatar
    We need to attach Schedule A visa to DREAM act. The nurse and PT shortage stills exists and there are highly qualified nurses and PT's waiting for years for such a visa Bill.
    Attach Nurse/PT visa bill to Dream Act.
  9. Another Voice's Avatar
    Chamber of commerce should lobby republicans to put some legal immigration measures with DREAM Act, otherwise it will belong before they act on something...
  10. George Chell's Avatar
    "Will anyone be lobbying to attach Nurse Bill to Dream Act. American economy is improving and there is defenitely going to be accute shortage of RNs. Republicans were always in favour of releasing special visa for RNs and PTs. Hope Democrats will support their effort."

    With the American Nurse Renee Elmers in Congress, dont count on it!

  11. My 2 cents's Avatar
    The nurses in the US (it includes nurses who came on Sch A) are dead against getting foreign nurses. I know of PT's who got GC's through their spouse nurses (Sch A) who don't support that bill anymore. This group is worried only about their job security. As long as this kind of selfish & self centered attitude persists I don't see any effort to push for reform coming from naturalized EB US citizens or LPR's.
  12. what?'s Avatar
    The reasoning sounds wonderful and its about time they do something in regards to LEGAL let that be Schedule-A or Visa recapture.

    "Will anyone be lobbying to attach Nurse Bill to Dream Act. American economy is improving and there is defenitely going to be accute shortage of RNs. Republicans were always in favour of releasing special visa for RNs and PTs. Hope Democrats will support their effort"

    Study shows demand for RN's, PT's and DR's are growing and with Health Care Reform, the demand will go even higher, all Republicans members are against HCR there is no chance for such a relief specially on healthcare professionals shortage because of HCR and also majority of members from R's are against immigration period. I am very doubtful that anything will happen in lame duck or 112th congress (I hope I am wrong).

    Here is what I would like to see.
    1. CIR (all will be resolved but seems next to impossible)
    2. DREAM ACT/SCHEDULE-A/VISA RECAPTURE (very possible but depends on D's and their GUTS - I would not blame this on R's)
    3. NOTHING ZIP (very likely and we are heading in this direction)
  13. SP's Avatar
    We need Schedule A visa reform passed with Dream Act. This will only help the American people. Health is wealth
  14. Jim's Avatar
    More traction for DREAM Act: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1110/45243.html

    I think passage is now very likely. At least in my humble opinion.

    Now, let's see some visa recapture and/or Schedule A visas attached it as well. And like I previously suggested before, add primary physicians to Schedule A together with nurses and PTs. Primary physicians, nurses and PTs are needed for America's future specially when HCR is fully implemented. Don't listen to the anti nurses that are already on their 50s. They won't be there when you need care. They will be old as well and will be needing care as well. That goes to former nurses that are politicians now or on another career. Do you think they will be there for you when you need bedside nursing or in the ER waiting for 8 hours or more just to be seen by a nurse and a doctor!?
  15. Waiting4GC's Avatar
    Scott Brown said he looks forward working with democrats on CIR if it focuses on Economy and is not "fluff". Is he trying to say that each immigrants benefiting from CIR should contribute additional $$$$$ on top of existing high filing fees?

    http://mobile.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/11/12/brown_immigration_reform_should_focus_on_economy/

    Mr. Brown i applaud your positive approach but i will watch you closely how you perform (and/or come up with ridiculously stupid reason to vote against it) when in fact the bill is introduced and debate starts.

    Mr. (slow) Reid again said today he will bring Dream act as stand alone bill on the floor in lane duck session but at unknown date, why does not he bring it now and start talking. Oh Brown said he will support the bill if it was stand alobe and now what excuse will he give us (may be not in lame duck).

    Hope Harry prevails this time. Good luck Senator you definitely need it.
  16. Jayesh P Shah's Avatar
    I am residing in India. My brother in law has filed petition for brother and sister relationship i.e. F-4 category in August-2003.Approximate time may kindly be guide.

    Secondly, My son is currently running age of 24 years. But whenevern the peition filed he was 15 / 16 years. And the file approved in November-2009. He is eligible with us. Please guide.

    Awaiting your valuable reply.

    Jayesh Shah
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