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Greg Siskind on Immigration Law and Policy

NCSL: LATINO VOTERS SAVED SENATE FOR DEMOCRATS

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An old, old friend who is a major voice in conservative politics in this country agreed with this when we spoke about the election today (he was obviously a lot happier today than me). He also agreed that if the GOP needs to understand that the voter anger over economy gave them a short term opportunity to retake power, but that maintaining that power when things get back to normal will depend on broadening their coalition to include Hispanics.


Anyway, here's the news from National Council of La Raza:



Latino voters proved pivotal in several hotly contested midterm elections, including in Nevada, Colorado, and California, and likely helped Democrats retain their majority in the United States Senate. According to exit polls, Latino voters contributed significantly to the margin of victory in the Senate and gubernatorial contests in California and Colorado, as well as, most notably, the Senate race in Nevada between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Assemblywoman Sharron Angle. In addition, initial exit poll reports suggest that Latinos, motivated by the widespread anti-immigrant tone of many campaigns, increased their share of the electorate in several states. These results confirm an earlier report on Latino voters by NCLR (National Council of La Raza), the largest national Latino civil rights and advocacy organization in the United States, which projected that an additional 700,000 Latino voters could participate in this election.


"Latino voters sent a loud and clear message this election: We reject the politics of fear and demonization. Where candidates engaged in the shameful scapegoating of immigrants and tactics that transparently disrespected Hispanics, such as in Nevada and Colorado, the response from Hispanic voters was overwhelming," said Janet Murguía, President and CEO of NCLR. "Latinos in 2010 reaffirmed their influential role in American politics, both as voters and as candidates, which will only increase in future elections. Political leaders and parties that demonize or take Latino voters for granted are taking a great risk."

"This was also an historic election for Latinos with the win of Susana Martinez in New Mexico, the first Latina ever to be elected as governor. And with the elections of Brian Sandoval as governor in Nevada and Marco Rubio as senator in Florida, it is clear that Latinos are forces to be reckoned with in both parties," noted Murguía. On the voting front, Latino voters in these and other states affirmed that candidates and positions matter in their voting choices.



Several pro-immigration groups commissioned the last minute very detailed poll of Hispanic voters in eight states. The link for the poll can be found here.

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Comments

  1. Another Voice's Avatar
    WOW these is great information on the polling data results. It begs the question as to what the republican strategy to attract this large voting block will be.... the hate politics will not sustain them in power for too long.
  2. My 2 cents's Avatar
    Is it the Latinos or the Asian voters who helped Harry Reid? I saw an earlier CNN link which had the Asians voting more than the Latinos.
  3. USC's Avatar
    In Nevada the La Raza poll has the Hispanic vote at 8% for Angle while the CNN exit poll has it at 30%.

  4. sam's Avatar
    Based on the tea leaf reading I did today....

    Without the support of GOP, immigration reform never happens.

    With GOP in house and Dems in Senate this is the good opportunity for Immigraiton reform.

    But, GOP will not do that.

  5. Greg Siskind's Avatar
    I heard the press conference today and the pollster noted that exit polls are notoriously bad at reading minority group turnout. I believe he mentioned that because of language issues, the exit pollsters deliberately avoid polls in heavily Hispanic neighborhoods thus undercounting turnout. Another interesting tidbit - the robopolls by groups like Rasmussen also undercount Hispanics because they are only conducted in English. The live polls better handle Spanish speakers.
  6. Jim's Avatar
    Outgoing Sen. Judd Gregg was a guest host y'day at CNBC. He repeatedly named immigration reform along with energy reform as one of those that GOP can compromise with the Dems.

    See video here: http://www.cnbc.com/id/39983968

    Hope those in the loop gets busy to push for any immigration reform in the lameduck session. That's the best time really to do anything and while Republicans such as Sen. Gregg are still there.

  7. George Chell's Avatar
    "Outgoing Sen. Judd Gregg was a guest host y'day at CNBC. He repeatedly named immigration reform along with energy reform as one of those that GOP can compromise with the Dems."

    Lamar Smith and Steve King will never allow any immigration reform including legal reform. Judd Gregg is being replaced by Kelly (Cayotte Hunter) Ayotte, who not only wants to go after illegal immigrant Cayottes (traffickers) but is not too enthused about legal immigration either. I will not however, put her in the same category as Roby, Adams, Blackburn or Bachmann....racists of the first order.

  8. USC's Avatar
    "I heard the press conference today and the pollster noted that exit polls are notoriously bad at reading minority group turnout. I believe he mentioned that because of language issues, the exit pollsters deliberately avoid polls in heavily Hispanic neighborhoods thus undercounting turnout. Another interesting tidbit - the robopolls by groups like Rasmussen also undercount Hispanics because they are only conducted in English. The live polls better handle Spanish speakers."

    CNN http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#NVS01p1

    La Roza: http://latinodecisions.wordpress.com/recent-polls/nevada-2010-results/

    That is a very useful and informative piece of information but it doesn't explain the descrepancy in the La Roza poll vs the CNN exit polls linked above. The La Roza has the Hispanic Senate vote at 12% while CNN has it higher at 15%. So, CNN is definitely not under-counting as compared to La Roza. La Roza pegs Reid's hispanic vote at 90% while CNN has it 68%. I don't understand this discrepancy.

    On a more important note, I am lobbying the Democrats to consider passing legal immigration reform in the lame duck session. If they fail to do we are looking at a wait of at least half a decade as the Democrats are extremely likely to lose the Senate in the 2012 election. They must defend 23 seats (including North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, Florida, Ohio, Nebraska, Virginia & W. Virginia) while the Cans only need to defend 10 (Wyoming, Tennessee, Utah, Texas, Arizona, Indiana, Mississippi, Nevada, Maine & Massachusetts). Not only is the math against the Democrats but they also have no chance in at least 7 of the States held by the Cans!

    So, the need of the hour, is to move on immigration, NOW!

  9. Jim's Avatar
    "On a more important note, I am lobbying the Democrats to consider passing legal immigration reform in the lame duck session. If they fail to do we are looking at a wait of at least half a decade as the Democrats are extremely likely to lose the Senate in the 2012 election. They must defend 23 seats (including North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, Florida, Ohio, Nebraska, Virginia & W. Virginia) while the Cans only need to defend 10 (Wyoming, Tennessee, Utah, Texas, Arizona, Indiana, Mississippi, Nevada, Maine & Massachusetts). Not only is the math against the Democrats but they also have no chance in at least 7 of the States held by the Cans!

    So, the need of the hour, is to move on immigration, NOW!"


    Couldn't agree more with you, USC. The appropriate time is indeed NOW.

    And I hope all the pro-immigrant advocates focus all their energies to have piece-meal legislations get done in this lameduck session.

    After the Defense appropriate bill and extension of the Bush tax, piece-meal legal immigration reform legislations should be the next priority as everything else can be done in the next Congress.

  10. Another Voice's Avatar
    Clearly in order to do anything Immigration wise would have to require compromise from a bunch of folks.... If you want republican help then perhaps the Chamber of Commerce as it has a lot of pull with republicans this year, should get behind the push for Immigration reform. CIR seems dead as a strategy but Republicans won't compromise if Obama or the dems ask for help, yet the Chamber is always wanting to do Legal Immigration and to some extend also Illegal Immigration reform. Business has to do some heavy lifting with republicans if some are ever going to support this.... The business community is one of the primary beneficiaries of reforming the Immigration system is time for them to get their people to help. If the small bill strategy is going to work you also need Hispanics and the folks supporting the legal immigration bills to help each other out both of these groups always think that they are more important than the other and sabotage themselves, not smart.
  11. George Chell's Avatar
    "On a more important note, I am lobbying the Democrats to consider passing legal immigration reform in the lame duck session. If they fail to do we are looking at a wait of at least half a decade as the Democrats are extremely likely to lose the Senate in the 2012 election. They must defend 23 seats (including North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, Florida, Ohio, Nebraska, Virginia & W. Virginia) while the Cans only need to defend 10 (Wyoming, Tennessee, Utah, Texas, Arizona, Indiana, Mississippi, Nevada, Maine & Massachusetts). Not only is the math against the Democrats but they also have no chance in at least 7 of the States held by the Cans!"

    If the GOP cannot win more than six states in this climate, it is not a given that they will regain the Senate in 2012. While there is a high probability that the GOP will gain MT, MO, NE and VA, they will likely loose ME (I will bet anything that Snowe looses the primary) and MA (Obama landslide no matter what...the GOP cannot even win a House seat in this climate and lost all state offices) and there is an outside shot at NV for a net gain of one to two seats for the GOP. WV will not go..because Manchin will find a way to win and Shelley Caputo is going to run for governor. Loss of ND is a distinct possibility if Conrad goes. So, a GOP win is not a certainty.

    On the flip side the Dems winning the House is also not likely. The final count is around 242-243. The Dems could win around 20, putting the GOP at 222-223. The Dems wont win the House until 2018. So in the final analysis, GOP will hold the House by a small margin and Dems might still hold the Senate with a smaller margin and nothing gets done even if Obama gets a second term. On the flip side, they will never solve the illegal problem unless they adopt a Soviet style set-up with spies everywhere and with the budget problems and heavy debt, that is not likely to happen either even if they wish.

    One final note: the head of all white female bigots has not yet been declared elected...Renee Elmers of NC who wants people to suspect all South Asians (including Nikki Haley of SC) of being a moslem or a terrorist...there is a recount and additional ballot counting going on. If she gets elected she will beat everything that JD Hayworth and Tom Tancredo did...face of a southern white female racist....

    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20017307-503544.html

    She will also fight any liberalization of nursing quotas..she is a nurse and wants her pay doubled and she is probably willing to work 48 hours straight in operating theaters..Etheridge made a big mistake...he should have told her that he was willing to work with her to build a big Christian Cathedral in the area if she supported migration of Christians, ie., Hispanics through CIR.

    Meg Whitman said in the closing debate that when she came to CA first in 1980 it was booming and a totally different place with no illegals...Brown smiled and said that when she came to CA he was the governor and the GOP has ruined the state by controlling the governor's mansion for 24 of the last 28 years..and we know that the rest is history! Etheridge simply is not as smart as the old man Brown.

  12. Matthew Kolken's Avatar
    The Hispanic vote helped both parties in this week's election. The GOP fielded three Hispanic candidates for major office while the Democrats did not have a single Latino. Three GOP Hispanics defeated Democrats in Texas, Idaho and in the State of Washington.

    Moreover, the new governor of New Mexico, Susana Martinez, is a Republican, and was supported by Democrat leaning Hispanic voters. Nevada Latinos may have come out to vote for Harry Reid, but they also voted for Latino Republican Brian Sandoval for Governor. Both Martinez and Sandoval are the first Latino Governors of their respective States. And of course we can't forget about Marco Rubio in Florida.

    Point being, it is disingenuous to paint a broad brushstroke over the Hispanic electorate's voting trend in this last election because both parties enjoyed broad support from Latino voters.
  13. Another Voice's Avatar
    "Point being, it is disingenuous to paint a broad brushstroke over the Hispanic electorate's voting trend in this last election because both parties enjoyed broad support from Latino voters."

    I disagree it shows that latinos will support their own, and republicans to their credit were perhaps smart to put Latinos as their candidates. It is after all the only way they will get Latino support. But in a general election latinos will continue to support the dems specially with all the hate rhetoric from republicans. The new NM governor said that she agreed with the AZ law, I would be surprised if her support amongst latinos remains the same if she continues on the same path, same with the republican representatives in TX and the other places they are mostly anti-immigrant, Univision is already providing Latinos with a complete profile on their positions specially on Immigration, Latinos will be well informed on who these people are unlike before this election.
  14. Greg Siskind's Avatar
    Matthew - The data simply do not back up what you're saying. Latino voters rejected Latino Republicans (and overwhelmingly rejected non-Latino Republicans). Rubio did well with traditionally Republican Cubans, but not so well with non-Cubans.
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