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Greg Siskind on Immigration Law and Policy

H-1B QUOTA EXHAUSTION TARGET STILL MARCH 2011

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Every Tuesday, USCIS releases its data on the pace of usage of H-1B numbers. I'm monitoring that usage and projecting the end date for H-1B numbers. It's not complicated science, but I'm basically using a rolling average of the prior four weeks of H-1B usage to minimize the anomolies of one particular week and then assuming that usage over the prior month will continue at roughly the same pace. If usage picks up, the exhaustion date will be revised to be sooner and vice versa if usage declines.


We actually saw a decline from prior weeks with 800 H-1B applications being receipted in the past week. That's compared to the 1200-1300 we saw in the prior three weeks. Still, the target exhaustion date is still March, though I'm showing the quota lasting until March. If we see the 800 number or lower again in the next few counts, expect my projections to start to push back to the spring of next year.


Master's cap cases are still moving at the 300 - 400 a week pace we've seen for a while. 7,400 of those H-1Bs remain and I'm projecting the numbers will be exhausted by January 2011.

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Comments

  1. George Chell's Avatar
    I will bet anything that with jobs moving abroad, perhaps across the border to Toronto and Vancouver, the quota does not get filled till summer.
  2. Adi's Avatar
    Greg, do submissions not increase after 1st Oct? Wonder by how much?
  3. Greg Siskind's Avatar
    Submissions might increase after 10/1 since employers won't have to wait on a start date. But I doubt it will change much.
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