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Greg Siskind on Immigration Law and Policy

ARIZONA BILL COULD IMPACT NOVEMBER RACES

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And it's not in the way the bill's supporters probably have hoped. From Public Policy Polling:

There's no doubt that the new Arizona immigration law is popular
nationally, but that still doesn't mean the issue's going to work to
the GOP's advantage this fall.

When we polled Colorado in
early March Michael Bennet and Jane Norton were tied. Last week we
found Bennet with a 3 point lead. One of the biggest reasons for that
shift? Bennet went from leading Norton by 12 points with Hispanic
voters to a 21 point advantage. That large shift in a Democratic
direction among Hispanics mirrors what we saw in our Arizona Senate
polling last month- Rodney Glassman went from trailing John McCain by 17 points with them in September to now holding a 17 point lead.

Hispanics
in the Mountain West are leaning much more strongly toward the
Democrats since the Arizona law was passed. The big question then
becomes whether there are white voters who are going to go Republican
this fall who wouldn't have if that bill hadn't
been passed. We don't see any evidence of that happening yet- Bennet
and Glassman are both doing better with white voters than they were
before as well, although not to the same degree that they've improved
with Hispanics.

A majority of Americans may support the bill but
it could still end up working to Democrats' benefit this fall if most
of the voters who care enough about it for it be a determining factor
in how they vote- or whether they vote- go in their direction.


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Comments

  1. Another Voice's Avatar
    MSNBC Rachel M. had an interesting statistic on her show the other night when talking about this " your papers please law", anytime republicans have used the anti-immigrant theme in the elections they have lost.... yet they keep trying hoping that some day it will stick!!
  2. Adi's Avatar
    Just heard on some news channel that Arizona is trying to bring in legislation for not recognizing citizenship of kids born to illegal aliens. Federal govt needs to stop this nonsense by passing CIR or else this this will result in white states vs colored states.

    Forget about what Rand Paul said for allowing discrimination in private businesses, we will be subjected to discrimination to enter into states.
  3. Legal and no longer waiting's Avatar
    Adi, they can't strip anyone born in the US of their citizenship. AZ may refuse to give a birth certificate, but that's not going to strip people of citizenship because the Constitution does not care about the birth certificate - any record of birth in the US will do. All it will do is to create a bunch of citizens with no birth certificates, and guess what - at some point they will turn 18. After that, it will turn into another embarrassing story of discrimination based on a national origin much like throwing Japanese Americans into camps during WWII.

    By the way, I have heard that Manicopa County (i.e. Joe Arpaio) lost their 287g certification due to racial discrimination, and that's why AZ has voted for this law - to justify the profiling methods used by shriff Joe. And maybe to get him out of the federal lawsuit.
  4. beppe's Avatar
    MC Cain is behind in the pool? If Mc Cain loose his seat to a democrat this could have been the best news ever
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