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Greg Siskind on Immigration Law and Policy

THE CALCULUS ON IMMIGRATION REFORM

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While many presume that the poor economic circumstances in
the US will scuttle immigration reform in coming months, I've been repeating my
observation that the White House and congressional leaders are more worried
about not locking in Hispanic voters which shifted a substantial percentage of
their votes to Democrats in the last few election cycles. Now a new report is
showing that six of the eight states expected to gain congressional seats based
on the 2010 census will do so because of Hispanic population shifts. According
to the Deseret
News
in Salt Lake City:>>



>



'The states likely to gain
political power following the 2010 Census are currently largely Republican
dominated' and in most cases 'will owe this expanded power to Latinos who moved
to their states,' says the study by the America's Voice
Education Fund, an organization based in Washington, D.C., that advocates
comprehensive immigration reform.>>



>



'Ironically, many members of the
delegations who will benefit ... have embraced policies that are hostile to
Latinos and immigrants. It will be interesting to see how the 2010 Census
impacts politicians' attitudes toward immigrants and Latinos
who help them expand their powers in Congress,' the report said.>>



>



*****>>



The study projects that eight
states will gain seats in the upcoming census -- Texas (gaining four), Arizona
(gaining two) and one each for Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Oregon, South Carolina
and Utah. Each House seat gained also brings an extra vote in the Electoral
College.>>



>



'Without Latino population
growth, six of the eight states gaining representation would most likely not
have achieved their current projected seats,' the study said. 'Only Georgia and
Utah would have gained their new seats without Latino growth.'>>



>



It is true that votes will likely be lost from some who see
immigrants as contributing to job loss amongst Americans. But polling shows
that most Americans consider immigration a low priority - not even a top ten
issue. The hard core small minority (probably no more than 20 to 25% in my
opinion) that have strong feelings on the subject are likely voting Republican
anyway so going forward with immigration reform won't alter the political
equation. But Democrats have an opportunity to "lock down" gains among Hispanic
voters and making them permanent members of the Democratic coalition. And as
the America's Voice report shows, the electoral power of Hispanics is
increasing. And unlike the general public, Hispanic voters DO consider
immigration policy a key issue when they consider for whom to vote. Failing to
move immigration reform soon could create an opening for Republicans to claim
that Democrats are not serious about immigration reform and just give lip
service to the issue.>>



>



The report can be found here.>>

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Comments

  1. George Chell's Avatar
    "'The states likely to gain political power following the 2010 Census are currently largely Republican dominated' and in most cases 'will owe this expanded power to Latinos who moved to their states,' says the study by the America's Voice Education Fund, an organization based in Washington, D.C., that advocates comprehensive immigration reform."

    I can understand why the GOP opposes immigration reform. The higher the number of illegals, the better for the southern whites. The illegals enhance the power of the southern whites and help them win elections through an augmented electoral college. Without illegals in 2000, New York would have had three more electoral votes and Illinois two more, PA two more, Michigan one more and New Jersey one more while Florida would have had three less, Texas three less, California three less, Arizona two less and Georgia one less..enough to have elected a President Gore! That is why I am very perplexed about something else the GOP does frequently..introduce legislation not to count the illegals as well as legal migrants towards the calculation of electoral college..unless the economy stinks without illegals and legals counted towards electoral college, the southern white power will be drastically diminished and they will find it tough to elect a GOP President. That is why I am surprised at Dave "the Diaper" Vitter trying to prevent illegals from being counted towards the census and hence the electoral college.

  2. Another voice's Avatar
    I like your assessment on the issue Greg, however I am not sure that the Dems are all that worried about losing the Hispanic vote and that vote going republican!! The republicans are a damaged goods brand as far as Hispanics are concern however what could hurt the dems is that if Hispanics become disappointed with the dems they will just won't come out and vote which in turn could hurt the dems at the polls. Perfect example could be the recent race for the governor in VA blacks and Hispanics did not come out to vote and the republicans had a big day.
  3. Sid's Avatar
    You might want to take into account this minor factor called the economy -

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/11/20/cnn-poll-blame-for-recession-shifting-from-gop-to-democrats/

    Will Hispanics vote for Democrats en masse if the high unemployment rates linger? I'm not so sure.
  4. Greg Siskind's Avatar
    Sid - You're assuming things will be as bleak in a year as they are today. If that's the case, I'm with you. But I'm an optimist and I'm going to bet that the economy is already improving and 2010 will see steady improvement as the year progresses.
  5. gg's Avatar
    http://thehill.com/homenews/house/69059-dems-alter-immigration-bill-in-face-of-tough-economic-climate

    (interesting read) !!
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