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Greg Siskind on Immigration Law and Policy


Rating: 9 votes, 5.00 average.

The August  Visa Bulletin is out and there is no major change to report except that the EB-2 category for India and China has moved back a bit to being six years backlogged. Also, the State Department is warning that EB-4 special immigrants (mainly religious workers) will likely retrogress in September.

Here are the numbers:

Family 1st - Advancement of worldwide, China and India numbers by seven weeks to 08 JAN 2003. Mexico remains at 1 JAN 1991. The Philippines is stalled at 1 SEP 1993.

Family 2A - Worldwide, India, China and the Philippines
numbers advance three weeks to 15 JAN 2005. Mexico jumps three months to 22 SEP 2002.

Family 2B - Worldwide, India and China numbers advance two weeks to 01 MAY 2001. Mexico moves one week to 08 MAY 1992. The
Philippines moves up a month to 01 MAY 1998.

Family 3rd - Worldwide, India and China advances one week to 01 NOV 2000. Mexico is stalled at 01 JUL 1991. The Philippines moves forward nine weeks to 08 AUG 1991.

Family 4th -
Worldwide numbers, China and India advance eight weeks to 22 DEC 1998. Mexico moves six weeks forward to 01 AUG 1995. The Philippines moves one month to 08 SEP 1986.

Employment 1st - All categories remain current.

Employment 2nd - Worldwide, Mexico and the Philippines remain
current. India and China move forward nearly three years to 01 OCT 2003.

Employment 3rd skilled/professional workers -This category remains unavailable and it is not clear yet when it
will again be available.

Employment 4th - All categories remain current.

Employment 5th - All categories remain current.


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  1. George Chell visiting Singapore's Avatar
    "And Chinese EB-2 employment immigration applicants now join the Indian misery as priority dates retrogress five years (!) to January 2000."

    Please ask Grassley and Durbin why Singapore lost only 2,000 jobs in the first quarter even as its economy declined by 14% while the US lost over 1.5 million jobs while it declined by only 5.7%! The answer should be are being moved to countries such as Singapore by US MNEs where they can employ who they want. However, although this is not rocket science, I do not expect the dim bulbs in the congress to understand this.
  2. John's Avatar
    Ron Gotcher's published a newsletter "Likely Visa Bulletin cutoff date movement", he mentioned this was discussed in AILA conference and I know you were there as well, can you please give insight as well.
  3. Greg Siskind's Avatar
    Ron's a smart lawyer and a friend and his analysis is interesting. However, a lot depends on how honest USCIS is being about the numbers. I do agree that the economy of today will help speed up numbers in the next few years.
  4. D's Avatar
    Good news out of this if there is any is that Visas are not going waste because of the inefficiency of CIS.
  5. John's Avatar
    But then AILA just published "Department of State Advises of Dire State of Affairs on Visa Number Availability for Those Born in India or China!"

    And here is the forum where Ron Gotcher says previous report is wrong.

    Ron Gotcher: There was probably a mix up between the two and the person who spoke at AILA had bad figures.

    Interesting!! Thoughts!!
  6. Greg Siskind's Avatar
    I did read the AILA report and it is pretty scary. EB-2 and EB-3 Indians in particular need to start green card processing as early as possible and might also look at alternative visa categories. I'll be discussing this on a future teleconference/podcast specifically advising Indian and Chinese clients on strategies for coping with the backlogs.
  7. AD's Avatar

    I posted this on Carl's blog and posting the same here.


    Last year DOS moved the dates to Aug 06 for EB2 and CIS approved AOS petitions of applicants with PD's of 05 and 06 and left 03 and 04 folks. Its a shame that many EB-2 I 03 /04 folks are now suffering while many 05/06 got their green cards and moved away.

    While EB-4 over subscription is really bad, the only saving grace is that it doesnt take any thing left from EB-5 (if any). I have a feeling that EB-5 will still have atleast 2000-3000 visa numbers that will spill over into EB1 and if lucky, if no over subscription as a whole in EB1 will trickle down into EB2 India and China

    B T W, So much for Open government, why doesnt DOS publish the numbers used, numbers allocated along with every visa bulletin? When all numbers are current no one might care, but DOS/USCIS wants us to engage in this great prediction game and AILA does not care to ask. Why arent you or AILA asking to publish this information? Forget the nature of the backlog from USCIS, which asked 5000USD for a FOIA request to publish the pending AOS backlog sorted by category and birth.

    Shameful, Despicable and loathsome are the only things that come to mind when I think about this via bulletin game.

    Arent you guys tired of being the bad messenger? How many years will you,me,carl and the whole junta do this prediction business? President talks about Open government, and big things. DOS doesnt tell how many visa numbers are used so far. It says High demand. High demand my foot. Sorry for the language but why does DOS keep this information to its chest as if it is classified. Why doesnt AILA open its mouth and ask for this rather than just singing the same high demand song? In Sep 08 Stake holders meeting, AILA asked for the nature of backlog of AOS petitions and CIS said they dont have the money to do a ITSR and answer it. AILA simply took the answer and came out. Damn! Folks are paying fee for AP and EAD renewal every year and those exact words that CIS Does not have money is a disservice.
  8. AD's Avatar

    It does not matter how early Indians and Chinese start because with a measly 2800, including dependents, it will take 20 years for those who have already filed. No matter what they do and attorneys do they will be stuck and only get 140 approved to get 3 year extensions. Believe me if this persists after next year when the blue card takes over, neither the attorneys nor CIS/DOS has to worry because people will flee in bigger numbers and by the time folks on hill do some thing meaningful, damage control would be too late.
  9. Greg Siskind's Avatar
    AD - You are right and it will take change in Congress to fix this terrible problem. I made a point of sending the Visa Bulletin and a letter to some contacts on Capitol Hill yesterday to make sure they're aware of the news. It is going to take a concerted effort on the part of pro-skilled immigration advocates and it will be a tough fight. But it must be one since the future not only of individual immigrants is in jeopardy, but the long term economic competitiveness of the country.
  10. John's Avatar
    AD: I agree that DOS/USCIS should publish used visa numbers along with Visa Bulletin. I read about them saying they are in process of making is available online in USCIS site, but they said it will take to have that functionality (which is just an excuse, how long will it take to come up with a page that displays used visa numbers).

    As for CIR, I dont think that's going to happen any time soon even after Harry Reid and President are interested in getting it pass this year. Republicans wont let that happen but then I think it will depend on how Sotomayor's hearing goes and I think it may be considered after Healthcare and Energy.

    I think its time to think about BLUE CARD LOL
  11. LI's Avatar
    AD: you mentioned about here is the link where you can suggest them what dataset you are interested in.

  12. analytical's Avatar
    Is there any news regarding Hr2536(nurses bill)????
    Should we expect its movement through congress this summer???
    Please give your expert opinion.
  13. Greg Siskind's Avatar
    No news to report, but I'll definitely post when I hear something meaningful.
  14. John's Avatar

    I just came across "USCIS Operating Performance" Reports. Can you please interpret the data?

  15. John's Avatar
    and here is another that was posted in April.
  16. Sid's Avatar
    "Republicans wont let that happen."

    Sorry John, Bush and the Republicans cannot be used as an excuse for everything anymore. There's a Dem President and they control the House and the Senate. They are solely responsible for what happens or doesn't happen in the next two years.
  17. D's Avatar
    "Sorry John, Bush and the Republicans cannot be used as an excuse for everything anymore. There's a Dem President and they control the House and the Senate. They are solely responsible for what happens or doesn't happen in the next two years."

    Agreed. Dems control every branch of government that matters in this regard.
  18. Greg Siskind's Avatar
    Looks like a lot of cases in the queue and a lot pre-worked, but new filings are slowing a bit in some areas.
  19. AD's Avatar
    screw the graphs, ask for the numbers to be put out.

    Aytes on his blog after a bunch of FOIA requests

    >>> A few months ago, a customer indicated his frustration that while he can monitor the Visa Bulletin to see how it moves month to month, he still has no idea how many people are waiting in line with pending adjustment applications or how long it may be before USCIS can process and approve his application. We know this customer is not alone! In response to that customer's request, we are working to make this information available on our Web site.
  20. DCMax's Avatar
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