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Greg Siskind on Immigration Law and Policy

LATINO VOTERS EXPECTED TO HEAVILY FAVOR OBAMA

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America's Voice has released this helpful chart to give folks an idea of what to look for when analyzing tomorrow's Latino vote. Polling for the past several weeks has shown McCain getting between 25% and 33% in most surveys, a substantial drop from 2004. Combined with the addition of three million new Latino voters, tomorrow could be a tough day for Senator McCain.

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 >>























































































2004
Election Results in States with Large Latino Populations
>>



State >>



2004
Presidential Result
>>



2004
Presidential Result: Latinos
>>



2004
Latino % of Electorate
>>



2004
Latino Turnout #
>>



AZ>>



55-44 Bush>>



43-56 Kerry>>



12%>>



269k>>



CA>>



45-54 Kerry>>



32-63 Kerry>>



21% >>



2.69m>>



CO>>



52-47 Bush>>



30-68 Kerry>>



8% >>



165k>>



FL>>



52-47 Bush>>



56-44 Bush>>



15% >>



1.11m>>



IL>>



44-55 Kerry>>



23-76 Kerry>>



8% >>



454k>>



NM>>



50-49 Bush>>



44-56 Kerry>>



32% >>



268k>>



NV>>



51-48 Bush>>



39-60 Kerry>>



10%>>



87k>>



NY>>



40-59 Kerry>>



24-75 Kerry>>



9% >>



693k>>



TX>>



61-38 Bush>>



49-50 Kerry>>



20%>>



1.59m>>



NATIONAL>>



51-48 Bush>>



44-53
Kerry
>>



8%>>



7.6m>>







America's Voice also posted the Latino vote from the last three cycles:

1996 - Clinton 72% to Dole 21%;
2000 - Gore 62% to Bush 35%;
2004 - Kerry 56% to Bush 44%

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Comments

  1. Another voice's Avatar
    If Obama wins and if he keeps his promise to fix immigration during the first 100 days, the dems can add a significant amount of voters for the future.
  2. George Chell's Avatar
    "If Obama wins and if he keeps his promise to fix immigration during the first 100 days, the dems can add a significant amount of voters for the future."

    He will need a significant Dem gain of around 30-40 seats and at least 59 seats in the Senate to achieve the goal.

  3. Senate Gal's Avatar
    When did Obama ever promise he was going to "fix immigration" during his first 100 days? It was McCain, not Obama, who said he'd work on CIR during his first 100 days. See http://embeds.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/06/28/mccain-immigration-reform-top-priority-for-first-100-days/. Obama would be a fool to expend political capital on immigration during that critical 100-day period, given the more pressing and important issues of the war, the economy, and health care, particularly in light of the economic crisis and the likely outcome that the Ds will not get 60 votes in the Senate.
  4. Another voice's Avatar
    "Obama would be a fool to expend political capital on immigration during that critical 100-day period, given the more pressing and important issues of the war, the economy, and health care, particularly in light of the economic crisis and the likely outcome that the Ds will not get 60 votes in the Senate."

    I disagree Immigration would not add to spending nor will it be an added cost needing to rise taxes on the contrary it would bring in money via fines and added taxes, potentially add contributors to SS and Medicare and off course add democratic voters for the future. On the economy you can assure 12 million consumers that they can buy a house or a car and they are able to stay here and get a DL also open a bank account adding liquidity to banks. It also can be used as a victory in National security as we know who is here and the country can be " more secure" if you streamline the immigration process then that puts less pressure on the border. Even if the dems do not get the 60 votes the republicans would want to throw something at the Hispanic electorate if they want to have a shot at anything in the future.
  5. JoeF's Avatar
    "Obama would be a fool to expend political capital on immigration during that critical 100-day period, given the more pressing and important issues of the war, the economy, and health care, particularly in light of the economic crisis and the likely outcome that the Ds will not get 60 votes in the Senate."

    There seems to be some whistling in the dark here from an anti-immigrant...
    Improving the immigration issues are actually a good way to help the economy. And the Dems may well get the supermajority in the Senate.
  6. Green Card's Avatar
    From a humanitarian perspective, our fellow human beings, who migrate to support their families, continue to suffer at the hands of immigration policies that separate them from family members and drive them into remote parts of the American desert, sometimes to their deaths. This suffering should not continue.

    Now is the time to address this pressing humanitarian issue which affects so many lives and undermines basic human dignity. Our society should no longer tolerate a status quo that perpetuates a permanent underclass of persons and benefits from their labor without offering them legal protections.
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