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Greg Siskind on Immigration Law and Policy

MCCAIN'S HISPANIC PROBLEM

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The Politico reports that the McCain camp is polling barely half what President Bush earned in 2004 and with Hispanics expected to turn out in larger numbers this year than any election in the past, this could spell disaster for the GOP.  Why the drop in support? You guessed it.

The biggest reason for the shift, though, has been the heated debate
over immigration reform that has alienated many Hispanic voters
previously receptive to the GOP -- and that nearly cost McCain, a
co-sponsor of the bipartisan 2006 immigration reform bill that inflamed
conservatives, his party's nomination.


In the 2006 midterm election, exit polls showed Latino support for
Democrats had increased by 16 percentage points from 2004, compared to
a six-percentage-point increase among whites.

While McCain's support of the immigration bill -- which was eventually
voted down -- appealed to many Hispanics, it infuriated some
conservatives. McCain, his campaign then floundering, promised primary
voters that he had "got the message," vowed to prioritize enforcement
and even claimed he wouldn't have voted for his own bill it if was to
have come up again.


The shift in tone placated conservatives while infuriating many Hispanics.




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Comments

  1. George Chell's Avatar
    Tony Fabrizio, who worked as Bob Dole's presidential campaign pollster in 1996, emphasized that no single measure of support is decisive. "McCain can make up the difference" he said, by increasing his support among whites."

    This is the attitude that has gotten the GOP in serious trouble. The blame should be laid squarely at the feet of Karl Rove. Had Rove "united" all Christians, Hispanic, white, Asian and black against the threat of Radical Islam and pushed for a comprehensive immigration reform after 9/11 instead of ceding the territory to racists such as Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, Nathan Deal and Dana Rohrbacher, he would have created a majority GOP realignment for a generation. Instead the clown abdicated his role and let the racists in the GOP define the immigration issue. I believe that the racists in the GOP of whom there are many, will have considerable input into the immigration platform and if McCain nominates Romney or Huckabee, you will see a flood of Hispanics running to the Dems. Meanwhile the white vote for GOP will remain constant as much as Fabrizio likes to dream.


  2. George Chell's Avatar
    "Tony Fabrizio, who worked as Bob Dole's presidential campaign pollster in 1996, emphasized that no single measure of support is decisive. "McCain can make up the difference" he said, by increasing his support among whites."

    This is the attitude that has gotten the GOP in serious trouble. The blame should be laid squarely at the feet of Karl Rove. Had Rove "united" all Christians, Hispanic, white, Asian and black against the threat of Radical Islam and pushed for a comprehensive immigration reform after 9/11 instead of ceding the territory to racists such as Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, Nathan Deal and Dana Rohrbacher, he would have created a majority GOP realignment for a generation. Instead the clown abdicated his role and let the racists in the GOP define the immigration issue. I believe that the racists in the GOP of whom there are many, will have considerable input into the immigration platform and if McCain nominates Romney or Huckabee, you will see a flood of Hispanics running to the Dems. Meanwhile the white vote for GOP will remain constant as much as Fabrizio likes to dream.


  3. nova's Avatar
    Please help me understand. I don't see what difference the presidential support for Immigration reform will make. We have a president who supports an Immigration reform even now. The democrats have the House and the Senate , the president is supporting Immigration reform and yet there is no reform. There was a lot of hope in '06 with the elections , but I remember the democrats' top priorities as stated in '07 and Immigration was not even mentioned. Nancy Pelosi never said a word about immigration ( maybe I missed it?) What will be different next year? In my opinion the Immigration reform is just the carrot on the stick in front of the Hispanics. It's been there for many years and will stay that way.
  4. George Chell's Avatar
    "Please help me understand. I don't see what difference the presidential support for Immigration reform will make. We have a president who supports an Immigration reform even now. The democrats have the House and the Senate , the president is supporting Immigration reform and yet there is no reform. There was a lot of hope in '06 with the elections , but I remember the democrats' top priorities as stated in '07 and Immigration was not even mentioned. Nancy Pelosi never said a word about immigration ( maybe I missed it?) What will be different next year? In my opinion the Immigration reform is just the carrot on the stick in front of the Hispanics. It's been there for many years and will stay that way."

    True, the US Senate cannot move on it and the House wont move unless the Senate moves. However, there is a distinct possiblity that Dems could capture as many as six seats held by the GOP in the Senate and if McCain wins, make that seven. If after gaining six or seven seats in the Senate, and another ten to fifteen seats in the House, Dems cannot move this thing, Harry Reid should be ousted as the Senate Majority Leader. As for Bush, I really do not believe he really pushed for it. He is trying to walk a fine line..appeal to the racist white voters concentrated in states in the south and in the Rocky Mountain west and also try to get the Hispanic vote. I think McCain is trying to do the same thing to a lesser degree.

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