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Greg Siskind on Immigration Law and Policy


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Wow. 163,000 applications received with 31,200 claiming advance degrees under the 20,000 bonus cap. That means that the odds are no better than one in two (assuming the cases filed are approvable).

Here is the USCIS announcement - Download h1b_cap_08_numbers.pdf

Submit "H-1B NUMBERS RELEASED" to Facebook Submit "H-1B NUMBERS RELEASED" to Twitter Submit "H-1B NUMBERS RELEASED" to Google Submit "H-1B NUMBERS RELEASED" to StumbleUpon Submit "H-1B NUMBERS RELEASED" to Reddit Submit "H-1B NUMBERS RELEASED" to Digg Submit "H-1B NUMBERS RELEASED" to

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  1. Sid's Avatar
    Fortunately, the odds for advanced degree holders are much higher.
  2. Sam's Avatar
    Just if you were wondering, if you qualify for the Bonus cap then your probability of getting the Visa is .7871 on the other hand if you don't then your probability of getting the visa would be .40699. Assuming none were filed for Chili and Singapore Citizens. (which I am sure some would be this will in fact increase both the probabilities.) Enjoy !!

    I just have an OCD when it comes to statistics
  3. Sid's Avatar
    Sam, making the same assumption about no applicants from Chile and Singapore, I got the values 0.8042 (20K/31.2K + 11.2K/31.2K X 65K/143K) and 0.4545 (65K/143K). Does it make sense or did I make a false assumption somewhere?

  4. Sam's Avatar
    Sid you did not discount the number (6800) that is alloted from the 65k to Chili and Singapore nationals. so your numerator will be 58200 not 65000.
  5. Sid's Avatar
    If you assume that there are no applicants from Chile and Singapore, then 6800 visas would go to the general quota. The numerator would be 58200 only if you assume that the entire quota of 6800 is used up by the C/S citizens.

  6. jUng's Avatar
    ok all u stats nerds what are the chances if a person does not get the lottery for the masters and is then put into the regular quota lottery , whats the overall probability
  7. Sam's Avatar
    Well As far as I know there is some time limit before that quota can be used for general population. I don't know the specifics but Greg can probably throw some light on it.
  8. Sam's Avatar
    I take an offense to being called a nerd and I think Sid would too. There is a difference in being a nerd and being just smart. If you would read Sid's second post you will see that we are talking about the over all probabilities.
  9. jUng's Avatar
    lol, no offense intended, i would take it as a compliment if some1 called me a nerd for my field of expertise, besides the point, .8042 seems like a decent probability, one would be unlucky not to get a visa i presume, lets see of the numbers add up

    btw any1 know by when will the results come in, and if there is a way we can directly check online if one is selected or not?
  10. Greg Siskind's Avatar
    On the two lotteries, they are supposed to happen in quick succession, but I don't know the gap.
  11. Sam's Avatar
    Hi Greg we weren't asking about the gab between the 2 lotteries. As i understand there 6800 H1B visas are reserved for the nationals of Chile and Singapore according to some trade pact with these countries. Also if these visas aren't used up they can be alloted to the General Quota. The question was regarding this, when does this roll over happen?
  12. Sam's Avatar
    Specifically will 65K H1B are available to the general population or 58200 in the lottery. Assuming there are no Chili or Singapore nationals who applied for the H1B visa from April 1st to 7th.
  13. Greg Siskind's Avatar
    Numbers from the last fiscal year for Chile and Singapore not used should be included in the current year's lottery. I don't know what that amount is.
  14. Legal and no longer waiting's Avatar
    If you are from the ROW and graduating with a Master's, you have better chances of going directly to green card and getting EAD before OPT expires.
  15. George Chell's Avatar
    Extension of practical training to 29 months would help alleviate the situation, although I still reiterate that not including MBAs is tragic..considering the incompetent American executives who run the corporations to the ground and walk away with millions. Some competition would do them some good but I guess, the US government is interested in protecting them and their incompetence as Carl Icahn alleges.
  16. manchee mastaa's Avatar
    i agree! they should have included all the masters in the 29 month OPT
    i wonder if there is a lobby group or a forum that would help push this suggestion before the rule becomes final??
  17. George Chell's Avatar
    "i wonder if there is a lobby group or a forum that would help push this suggestion before the rule becomes final??"

    Should be done by people like Greg and the Lawyers Association. The fact is these incompetent American CEOS need more competition not less.
  18. Scott's Avatar
    According to AILA, the USCIS has completed the lottery (see

    Any idea when people who filed premium processing petitions will hear? And will it be by email?

    Good luck to everyone!
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