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Greg Siskind on Immigration Law and Policy

WILL MCCAIN IMMIGRATION VIEWS HELP HIM WIN FLORIDA?

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Rudy Guiliani is banking everything on winning Florida. He's hoping all the ex-New Yorkers living in the Sunshine State will deliver him a win that will help get him back to the top of the heap.



But is Florida the state that will instead seal the deal for McCain? There's one place in America where being pro-immigration plays VERY
well with Republican voters. And that's my home town of Miami, Florida
where the anti-Castro Cuban community members have been reliable
supporters of the GOP for decades. McCain's support for comprehensive immigration reform will help more than hurt with many Republicans in Florida. And those New Yorkers in South Florida are mostly Democrats (remember
why Al Gore wanted each and every vote in South Florida to be counted?) so Guiliani may be on shaky ground if that's what he's hoping will save his campaign.



Of course, the further north you go in Florida, the more Southern it gets and Governor Huckabee will likely find support. And in the northern and central parts of Florida, the anti-immigration rhetoric will play better. 



And speaking of South Florida, Miami Herald columnist Andres Oppenheim has the same take on the meaning of the New Hampshire primary as I mentioned the other day. And the Daily Kos, the liberal blog, also has a similar view.

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Comments

  1. Sid's Avatar
    The "ex-New Yorkers" part reminded me of Seinfeld :-)
  2. USC's Avatar
    "And those New Yorkers in South Florida are mostly Democrats"

    Yes.

    Back in 2000, I spoke to one snowbird who has a condo in West Palm and he was horrified at the thought that he might have voted for Buchanan (he is Jewish so the thought of voting for Buchanan is especially repugnant) instead of Gore.

    "(remember why Al Gore wanted each and every vote in South Florida to be counted?)"

    Thanks to Sandra Dee and SCOTUS we ended up with two accidental Bushes.

    All of us know about the circumstances that gave us Junior but how we ended up with Poppy is not nearly as well known:

    http://www.hoover.org/publications/digest/3492521.html

    "But is Florida the state that will instead seal the deal for McCain? There's one place in America where being pro-immigration plays VERY well with Republican voters. And that's my home town of Miami, Florida where the anti-Castro Cuban community members have been reliable supporters of the GOP for decades. McCain's support for comprehensive immigration reform will help more than hurt with many Republicans in Florida. And those New Yorkers in South Florida are mostly Democrats (remember why Al Gore wanted each and every vote in South Florida to be counted?) so Guiliani may be on shaky ground if that's what he's hoping will save his campaign."

    Excellent analysis!!



  3. Another voice's Avatar
    Guiliani's anti-immigrant rethoric is not going to play well in the sunshine state no matter how manu former New Yorkers there are, most of them anyway would have favorable Immigration views. The Panhandle is where he may gain some ground but not enough to win the whole state I think he is toast this all or nothing big state strategy is risky.
  4. drew from immigrants list's Avatar
    Sorry my own vanity makes me point this out, the first three paragraphs is Kos' post are from me.
  5. Jack's Avatar
    What about this?

    "There are about 2 million people here illegally who have committed crimes; those people should be deported immediately," McCain said, attributing those numbers to Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff.

    http://real-us.news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071231/pl_nm/usa_politics_immigration_dc

  6. Jack's Avatar
    McCain at the SC debate:

    'The remaining 12 million, obviously two million of them who have committed crimes have to be rounded up and deported immediately. They cannot stay in our society.'

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