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Greg Siskind on Immigration Law and Policy

AND NOW THE LONG, LONG WAIT BEGINS

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The NY Times is reporting that USCIS received 300,000 adjustment applications under the July Visa Bulletin (the closing date was yesterday if you've been living in a cave for the last few months). Given the way the quota system works, expect this surge to add several years to the green card waits for most, particularly if you're from India, China or the Philippines.  We'll know more when the Visa Bulletin for October is released in about a month.

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Comments

  1. paskal's Avatar
    Greg,

    Why do you think it will add several years more? All that's happened is filing of AOS allowing interrim benefits. All 300,000 were effectively in line before - as they are now. Since GC allotments is by PD anyway, why does it change anything?
    Thanks!
  2. EB's Avatar
    Greg does 300K include dependents? Please inform us. Thanks.
  3. In Immigration Limbo's Avatar
    Congress needs to do some kind of recapture of unused visa numbers to help with the massive backlog (not holding my breath though).

    I am sure that the 300,000 number includes dependents, at least I am hoping.
  4. Alan's Avatar
    A co-worker who filed on June 29 received on Aug 13 the fee receipt and letters for finger printing. I am hopeful that while there are tons of applications at the door they don't just sit on processing them.
  5. Greg Siskind's Avatar
    A lot of applications were filed in non-labor cert categories that might not have otherwise been filed. That was particularly true in the EB-2 category.

    But what I meant was that we have a situation where only 140,000 cases can be approved per year in all categories. We now have a backlog in EB-3 that is several years and EB-2 backlogs for Indians. Now we're adding 300,000 more applications that were not previously factored in to the numbers.
  6. Greg Siskind's Avatar
    Yes, dependents are included. But dependents count against the 140,000 cap as well.
  7. ARZ's Avatar
    Paskal,

    There are several factors in my opinion that will adversely affect the processing speed of USCIS:
    1- Because the july bulletin basically allow anyone who think they might be qualified for EB green card to apply, it created a "risk-taker" effect. I personally know a great deal of F1 students who think they otherwise won't be qualified or not ready but want to try their luck nonetheless. Most of them filed 140/485 concurrently with NIW or higher degree applications. Without a doubt, CIS will likely tighten up their review standard and REF/reject a good deal of them. But all these cases will take time to go through. So that add up the processing time.

    2- USCIS's scheme on fee increase to compensate budget constrain is essentially crushed by the July bulletin. They were hoping to get hundreds of millions of dollars in order to fund operations with more staff members. Now they will have to rethink their plan. This will slow down their process.

    3- Some worried a flood of 300k or more applications will make the already slow but orderly CIS case work flow chaotic and even slower. Because of lacking of transparency and coordinations of CIS procedures, it's very difficult to streamline their internal work order. After all, it's not a business entity, and you don't have a Mitt Romney to come in and turn it around in a year. All the Romneys are having bigger ambitions out there. The people who get appointed to the directors of these agencies are usually bureaucrats that are not capable or not willing to take on more risks.
  8. Jun's Avatar
    I have a personal belief that those doing AOS are really over-taking those doing CP. Although processing goes by PD, USCIS asks for visas whose AOS application was filed when their PD was current and therefore, even though there is retrogression, all approved AOS cases waiting for visa numbers will be sought a visa each. DOS then will give available visa numbers to USCIS even though the PD of AOS is much later than those in CP.

    Let us remember that DOS is processing CP while USCIS is processing AOS. These two agencies have different ways of doing it.
  9. afro's Avatar
    Let's hope these wait only affect China/India and not ROW.
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