VISA BULLETIN PROJECTIONS FOR 2013
Charles Oppenheim of the Department of State is the person
most responsible for each month's Visa
Bulletin. In a conversation with
AILA, Mr. Oppenheim recently discussed projections for future Visa
Bulletins. MU Law has spoken with Mr.
Oppenheim several times in the past and have always found that his projections
are well thought out and very accurate.
Here are some important notes from that conversation:
- India EB2 will see very little movement in the
foreseeable future. Many immigrant
visa applicants with old India EB3s are recapturing these dates in
subsequent EB2 applications, thereby holding back the progression of India
EB2. Current numbers indicate that
there are approximately 42,000 India EB2 cases in line with priority dates
prior to May 2010. These numbers
cannot account for future upgraded India EB3s.
- The USCIS and DOS have pre-adjudicated 44,000
India EB-3 Applications with priority dates before August 2007. Therefore it will be several years
before India EB-3 progresses beyond that date.
- There are 12,000 India EB3 cases with priority
dates before January 2004, which means that India EB3 will not improve
into 2004 for at least one or two years.
- Worldwide EB-3 has 42,000 pre-adjudicated cases
with priority dates before March 2007. Still, the Worldwide EB-3 date is May
2007. Mr. Oppenheim did not say it,
but it reasonable follows that many of these 42,000 Worldwide EB-3s likely
have been abandoned.
Because it is impossible to predict how many
EB2s are upgraded to EB2, it is nearly impossible to predict future dates. For instance, Worldwide EB3 had 1,100
upgrades in December 2012. In 2007,
there were only 72 upgrades for the entire year.