ILW.COM - the immigration portal Immigration Daily

Home Page


Immigration Daily

Archives

Processing times

Immigration forms

Discussion board

Resources

Blogs

Twitter feed

Immigrant Nation

Attorney2Attorney

CLE Workshops

Immigration books

Advertise on ILW

VIP Network

EB-5

移民日报

About ILW.COM

Connect to us

Make us Homepage

Questions/Comments


SUBSCRIBE

Immigration Daily


Chinese Immig. Daily




The leading
immigration law
publisher - over
50000 pages of
free information!
Copyright
1995-
ILW.COM,
American
Immigration LLC.

View RSS Feed

Greg Siskind on Immigration Law and Policy

DO REPUBLICANS RISK A GENERATION IN THE MINORITY BECAUSE OF IMMIGRATION

Rate this Entry

The front page of this morning's NY Times has two stories that show the serious bind facing Republicans. In one story entitled "As Immigration Plan Folded, Grass Roots Roared," Times writer Julia Preston describes how anti-immigrant groups effectively mobilized mostly Republican, mostly white, mostly suburban individuals to shout their opinions to Congress. It is far from clear how big this group is or whether they can influence elections. But they certainly project strength and it is clear they have had an effect on many politicians, particularly Republicans.



Next to this story is one by Raymond Hernandez entitled "Hispanic Voters Enjoy New Clout With Democrats." According to the story,

The debate over immigration has spurred Hispanic leaders and voters to mobilize like few issues in recent memory have. The National Association of Latino Elected Officials has joined with the Hispanic television network Univision on a national campaign to help Hispanic residents fill out citizenship applications and to help those who are already citizens register to vote.

Stephanie Pillersdorf, a spokeswoman for Univision, said the number of Hispanic residents who had applied for citizenship in Los Angeles County alone had gone up 146 percent since the campaign started several months ago.

The story goes on to point out that in the 2006 midterm elections, Hispanic support for Republicans dropped from 44% in 2004 to only 26%. The combination of an expanding Hispanic electorate and a major drop in support proved fatal for many Republican candidates and some are crediting the loss of both Houses in Congress to this factor and not, as conventional wisdom holds, the war in Iraq.



The choice for Republicans will not be easy. While some find it easy to play the anti-immigrant card,  many are philosophically in favor of immigration and opposing immigration reform is not easy. This is particularly true for Republicans of the libertarian wing of the party. These pro-business Republicans are suspicious of government interference in commerce and have great difficulty making decisions they know are killing the business community and making America less competitive. I'd put Sam Brownback and Rudy Giuliani in that category. They were previously very pro-immigration politicians who have suddenly backtracked on this issue because the same voters described in the Preston article are the ones likely to vote in Republican primaries. But winning a primary will be small consolation when facing a Democrat who has a strong Hispanic wind at his or her back. And couple this with the fact that most polls show a substantial majority of Americans are with the Hispanic community on immigration.



Some are speculating the Senate Democrats have made the calculated decision that they don't need to take a bad deal on immigration because the Republicans are digging their own grave on the issue. A lot more Republican seats are up in 2008 than 2006 and the party is looking at further major losses. It could very well be the case that Democrats have the 60 votes they need to overcome a filibuster without the need to swallow onerous provisions pushed by the GOP.



This is not to say that I think a deal this year is dead. Far from it. The White House understands all too well the political dilemma the Times describes. And so do many of the Senate's GOP leaders. They know that they are going to be the ones blamed for the bill's defeat, not the Democrats, and they will likely not pick up a single election victory as a result of that position, but are likely to lose many instead. So I am still putting my money on a deal being worked out and soon.

Submit "DO REPUBLICANS RISK A GENERATION IN THE MINORITY BECAUSE OF IMMIGRATION" to Facebook Submit "DO REPUBLICANS RISK A GENERATION IN THE MINORITY BECAUSE OF IMMIGRATION" to Twitter Submit "DO REPUBLICANS RISK A GENERATION IN THE MINORITY BECAUSE OF IMMIGRATION" to Google Submit "DO REPUBLICANS RISK A GENERATION IN THE MINORITY BECAUSE OF IMMIGRATION" to StumbleUpon Submit "DO REPUBLICANS RISK A GENERATION IN THE MINORITY BECAUSE OF IMMIGRATION" to Reddit Submit "DO REPUBLICANS RISK A GENERATION IN THE MINORITY BECAUSE OF IMMIGRATION" to Digg Submit "DO REPUBLICANS RISK A GENERATION IN THE MINORITY BECAUSE OF IMMIGRATION" to del.icio.us

Tags: None Add / Edit Tags

Comments

  1. Oswald Spengler's Avatar
    Ordinary Americans should take in consideration that any more delays with the immigration reform, will only entice younger generations of Americans born from illegal parents and immigrant communities to become more antagonistic with the system; therefore, these people may display more resentment and potentially a deeper sense of abhorrence towards this country. This is a potential recipe for civil unrest that can already be perceived in the air and it could easily be predicted that any turmoil will be hundreds of times more destructive than the Los Angeles riots of 1992 -a warning call for politicians in Washington.
  2. BHaines's Avatar
    This clearly sums up why the Democrats don't want a secure border with a fence.
Put Free Immigration Law Headlines On Your Website

Immigration Daily: the news source for legal professionals. Free! Join 35000+ readers Enter your email address here: