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Dec 17 - This Is It For DREAM

Rating: 10 votes, 5.00 average.

-----------------IMMIGRATION DAILY FROM ILW.COM------------------



December 17, 2010



http://www.ilw.com/immigrationdaily/digest/2010,1217.shtm



ITEMS



1. Comment: This Is It For DREAM - What a difference a day makes!

Major developments occurred in the House and the Senate, when the

digital ink was scarcely dry on our issue of yesterday

(12/16/10). Briefly, the tax cut bill was passed by the House,

sending it to the President for his signature. Over at the

Senate, the pork-laden, almost 2,000 page omnibus bill was

abandoned by about 9 Republican Senators thus dooming it. The

fate of the lands/water bill is up in the air, and this bill,

hundreds of pages long, may be dead for this Congress. There was

even progress on judicial nominations, with the Senate confirming

4 judges by unanimous consent, proving that wonders will never

cease! Apart from three judges who the Republicans have

criticized for being too liberal, a couple of dozen additional

confirmations are likely, also by unanimous consent. All this

suddenly clears up floor time and sharply reduces the pending

agenda which is now only 4 items at the Senate: ratification of

START, DADT repeal, DREAM and the Continuing Resolution (only

this last item would need a House vote). It appears that the

Republicans will get their way on the Continuing Resolution,

while the President usually gets support for something as

important as a nuclear treaty with Russia (a procedural vote

garnered 66 votes, just one shy of the votes needed for Treaty

approval). That leaves DADT repeal and DREAM, cloture for both of

which was filed for by Majority Leader Reid last night, and votes

for both of which will occur early on Saturday, tomorrow. Only

this last vote in the Senate now stands between the DREAM bill

and its enactment, but we are far from assured of passage for

this important pro-immigration legislation. We present below our

best analysis of where the vote stands on the Senate floor.

According to Daily Kos,

http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/12/16/929590/-Reid-to-file-cloture-tonight-on-DREAM-Act-and-dont-ask,-dont-tell

the votes of as many as nine Democratic Senators are still up for

grabs: Nelson of Nebraska, Tester, Baucus, Hagan, Pryor, Conrad,

Manchin, McCaskill and Landrieu. To the extent that the

Democratic party wants to make a serious play for the immigrant

vote, it should minimize the defections among this group of nine.

Three Republican Senators are clearly courting disaster if they

vote NO: Brown, Ensign and Kirk - all three of which will likely

face an uphill re-election ahead if they want to defy their

states on a matter which will be remembered even when the dust

has settled (they should be on notice that the army of DREAMers

will not forget them, and Ensign in particular should be on

notice that there now exists an "immigrant vote", which will

likely be decisive when he faces the people of Nevada again).

Three more Republican Senators are also taking risks if they vote

NO: Collins and Snowe (since Maine is not exactly Alabama), and

Lemieux (who should know that non-Latino Republicans are likely

to lose in a state-wide election in Florida unless they have a

good immigration record). However, we believe that matters

ultimately rest in the hands of Senators McCain and Kyl, both

from a state where immigration is a critical issue, and both of

whom have taken courageous past stands defying the racists within

the Republican party on immigration, in order to do the right

thing, both for their party and their country. Republicans should

thank their lucky stars that Murkowski, Bennett and Lugar will

likely vote YES, thus, to some extent, blunting the effect of

this vote on the Republican party in elections to come. Both

McCain and Kyl are statesmen, and that is exactly why they have

taken risks in the past, and can do so again on DREAM, to bring

their party with them in voting YES. The immigrant vote is no

longer in the future, as the election last month showed, it

already exists in the nation's southwest. We urge Mr. McCain and

Mr. Kyl to do the right thing for the Republican party and the

right thing for the country and vote YES on DREAM.



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Immigration Debate by Matthew Kolken

http://www.ilw.com/articles/2010,1217-kolken.shtm



4. Article: DREAM Act Vote Coming Late Tomorrow Or Early Saturday

by Greg Siskind

http://www.ilw.com/articles/2010,1217-siskind.shtm



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7. Headline: DREAM Act Resource Page from Immigration Policy

Center http://ow.ly/3qPOO

8. Headline: Support the DREAM Act http://ow.ly/3qPCk

9. Headline: DREAM Act: If you live in AK, AR, AZ, IN, IL, KS,

LA, ME, MO, NC, ND, NE, NV, OH, TX, or UT Call your Senators Now

http://ow.ly/3qPix

10. Headline: The DREAM Act Can't Wait! Call your Senator and ask

for their support http://ow.ly/3qPlv

11. Headline: Why the Founding Fathers Would Support the DREAMAct

http://ow.ly/3qP3z

12. Headline: Asylum seekers hold sit-in outside

http://ow.ly/3qOSU

13. Headline: America's Chief Immigration Officer? Immigration

reform is about our country's economic survival

http://ow.ly/3qOKQ

14. Headline: Immigration Raids Lawsuit Upheld: the quest to hold

immigration agents accountable for alleged constitutional

violations http://ow.ly/3qOtu

15. Headline: Senate Schedules Key, Make-it-or-Break-it DREAM Act

Procedural Vote for Saturday http://ow.ly/3qOcg

16. Headline: Immigration Raids Lawsuit Upheld http://ow.ly/3qNjN

17. Headline: ICE Agents Aren't Immune to Lawsuits: Judge

http://ow.ly/3qNen

18. Headline: Get your ad in ten thousand pages! Improve search

engine ranking, increased name recognition and referrals. Sign up

at http://ow.ly/3icY3

19. Headline: These are the people affected by political games

http://ow.ly/3qrbX



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ReadersWrite



1. ReadersWrite: Yesterday's Discussion

http://blogs.ilw.com/immigrationdaily/2010/12/16_endgame_for_111th_nears.html#comments



2. ReadersWrite: Today's Discussion

http://blogs.ilw.com/immigrationdaily/2010/12/17_this_is_it_for_dream.html#comments



To submit an Article for consideration, write to

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ComingsNGoings



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Readers can share professional announcements (up to 100-words at

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Comments

  1. Roger Algase's Avatar
    ID has certainly done a lot of work analyzing the possible voting patterns on the DREAM Act cloture vote expected later Saturday morning. My only comment is that any notion that the two Republican Senators from Arizona will support DREAM is in itself a dream. We might as well expect two other well known Arizona Republicans, Governor Jan Brewer and Sheriff Joe Arpaio, to campaign for it.

    Beyond that, there seems to be a great deal of other wishful thinking in ID's comments about the chances of passage. I think a more likely scenario is a straight Republican party line vote against the bill, with at least half a dozen Democratic "Profiles in Cowardice", to paraphrase the title of John F. Kennedy's famous (at least to my generation) book.

    I earnestly hope that ID turns out to be right and that I will be proven utterly and totally wrong. If the DREAM Act passes and my comment wins the prize for the worst prediction of the year, or perhaps the decade, nothing could make me happier.

    But even if the DREAM Act passes, we should not open too many bottles of champagne. The nightmares of assault on the 14th Amendment, and of perhaps many other harsh anti-immigrant initiatives await us shortly when the new Congress is sworn in. These nightmares will continue until our politicians and media finally find the will and the courage to take on the real immigration problem - the rise of bigotry, intolerance and appeals to hatred that are not only blocking immigration reform, but are putting America's entire democracy in danger.
  2. Roger Algase's Avatar
    I am sorry to say that, as was determined in the Senate just a short time ago, my prediction that the DREAM Act would fail will not win the worst prediction of the year prize. DREAM failed in the Senate by five votes, 55-41.

    Will the Democratic leadership now be able to find the courage to attach it to a must pass bill? There is at least one precedent for this: IIRIRA itself was passed in just that manner by the Republicans in 1996.

    Otherwise, we will be saying goodbye to DREAM and hello to an immigration nightmare, courtesy of the new Congress.
  3. Sam's Avatar
    @Roger:

    No, the Democratic leadership will likely not attach DREAM to a must-pass bill. This is because they will likely fail to achieve cloture even on a must-pass bill, unless it has hundreds of provisions over thousands of pages, since there will be sufficient votes to kill the must-pass bill over just the DREAM issue. Based on the language of the continuing resolution currently being negotiated, it appears safe to say that the size of the bill will be considerably less than hundreds of pages. Indeed Mr. McConnell's draft is only one page, as we understand it. Our forecast would change if the reconciliation process was used, and there are a few who have argued that using reconciliation may be within the rules of the Chambers, but the Democratic leadership has consistently shied from using reconciliation after the November election.

    The calendar is also a factor since START is currently on the Senate floor, and a nuclear-arms treaty with Russia is certainly something that would justify an extended Senate discussion. We understand that the Obama administration has been pushing START hard behind the scenes, and that the administration was quite content to lose both DREAM and DADT repeal in exchange for START. We owe the votes in the Senate on both provisions to the Senate Democratic leadership which apparently assured the President that the two votes would not take away time from the Treaty. Now that DADT repeal has been secured, we would expect the administration to strongly resist anything that would divert from START.
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