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Dec 16 - Endgame For 111th Nears

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-----------------IMMIGRATION DAILY FROM ILW.COM------------------

December 16, 2010,1216.shtm


1. Comment: Endgame For 111th Nears - The endgame of the 111th

Congress is now playing out. Several pieces of large legislation,

hundreds of pages long (and in one case, almost 2,000 pages long)

are in play. The reason this is important is that many important

immigration bills have historically been shoe-horned into large

bills, typically appropriations bills, at the end of

Congressional terms. Several immigration-related issues may make

it into law this time also. We examine below the large bills

still in play, and the several immigration related issues which

are also in play.

The large bills still unresolved are: A almost 2,000 page Omnibus

Appropriations bill for the balance of FY 2011, the tax cut bill,

a major lands/water bill. The foregoing are issues for both

chambers, but the Senate has additional time-consuming matters on

its hands: the START treaty on which floor discussion and

amendments are ongoing, and hundreds of nominations, particularly

judicial nominations which are pending. Another drain on the

Senate's time will be the stand-alone bill for DADT repeal which

cleared the House earlier this week, and is all set for a

showdown on the Senate floor.

The immigration issues are of course DREAM, and numerous

provisions in the Omnibus Appropriations Bills, in Divisions B,

F, H and K of the current draft. These numerous provisions

include funding for various immigration programs, with several

levels of funding going up and down from the previous fiscal

year, and several immigration-related earmarks, including some

for ICE.

Here is our best look at the Crystal Ball on how the

Congressional schedule, especially the Senate schedule will play

out, and what this means for the immigration-related provisions,

including DREAM. Given that the Senate has taken up the START

treaty in earnest, and given that the House is likely to take its

last shot on the tax cut bill soon, both these political

behemoths should be out of the way by early next week. The big

issues pending then will be: the Omnibus, the lands/water bill,

DADT repeal, DREAM, and of course, the nominations. Should even

one Republican Senator object to each of these, it is impossible

to finish all of these in the Senate before the 112th Congress

convenes, even should the 111th Congress work on both Christmas

Day and New Year's Day. So, either things will get dropped, or

combined (except for nominations, which cannot be combined).

Combination is politically tricky, since the votes on all these

issues are not 100% aligned. Two scenarios present themselves as

likely: (1) the Omnibus is dropped in favor of a short-term

Continuing Resolution, the nominations are postponed to the next

Congress, and the lands/water bill is forgotten. If this scenario

happens, this will leave the stage clear for votes on DADT and

DREAM, and the way things stand now in the Senate, DADT will

likely pass, and DREAM will likely fail. However, there is

another possible scenario - (2) the 6,000+ earmarks for $8

billion in the Omnibus will carry the day on the Senate floor,

and if this happens, the lands/water bill, DADT, and DREAM will

all likely be collapsed into one giant 3,000 page bill. If this

scenario happens, the giant bill, with DREAM in it, will almost

certainly pass. In other words, the fate of DREAM is likely tied

up in whether enough Republican Senators (including some

notorious DREAM opposers) want their earmarks badly enough. We

will find out soon, stay tuned to Immigration Daily - never a

dull moment at the end of any Congressional term!

2. Article: Marine Widow Private Bill Passes Congress by Greg


3. Article: Dreaming by Chris Musillo,1216-musillo.shtm

4. News: USCIS Issues Memo On Inadmissibility Waivers And Status

Grants For Certain Aliens Seeking NIV Status In CNMI,1216-cnmi.pdf

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6. Headline: Kay Bailey Hutchison's Dreamact dance

7. Headline: Nixing DREAMact may doom GOPers

8. Headline: The military needs the DREAMAct

9. Headline: Congressman Calls for Deportation Moratorium

10. Headline: Rights Groups Protest Planned Deportation of


11. Headline: Immigration Practice: a complete guide w/ issues &

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12. Headline: Harkin: Dems will try again on DREAM Act

13. Headline: Another challenge to AZimmigration law dismissed

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