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Nov 24 - Chamber, Vehicle And Vote

Rating: 6 votes, 5.00 average.

-----------------IMMIGRATION DAILY FROM ILW.COM------------------


November 24, 2010


http://www.ilw.com/immigrationdaily/digest/2010,1124.shtm


ITEMS


1. Comment:
Chamber, Vehicle And Vote - There are three questions standing
between DREAM and its enactment: Which chamber votes first? What
vehicle will be used for the bill? Are there enough votes to pass
the bill? We comment on these below, along with why this is
important to all those affected by immigration benefits,
particularly employment-based immigration benefits.


First, lets look at the order of the votes in the chambers: If it
is the intention of the Democratic leadership to merely make a
statement, the Senate can go first. If it is the intention of the
Democratic leadership to actually enact legislation, the House
may have to go first. The record demonstrates this - when the
leadership was serious about passing the health care and climate
change bills, the House took the lead, since the Democrats
enjoyed a near-super-majority in that chamber, and a mere
majority is sufficient for passage. However, tough votes are
always on a razor's edge in the Senate, where a super-majority is
always needed for cloture. Moreover, the passage of a bill by the
House creates momentum for it to be passed in the Senate.


Next, lets look at the possible vehicles for DREAM: In the House,
the Republican minority will try to defeat DREAM with the limited
options offered to them through House rules. It is advantageous
to DREAM proponents to choose a vehicle for the DREAM Act which
can ensure quick passage, instead of having to deal with
amendments and other parliamentary maneuvers the would be in
order should DREAM be offered as a stand-alone bill on the House
floor. The House Democratic leadership could bring the Haitian
Orphan bill to the floor and offer DREAM as an amendment to that
bill. This would would forestall Republican options and make
possible swift passage. As the Senate has already passed the
Haitian Orphan bill, it could take the amended bill the House
passes and vote on it directly. The other option for the Senate
would be to offer DREAM as an amendment to the military
appropriations bill. This is not a likely option because "Don't
Ask Don't Tell" is already an organic part of the military
appropriations bill, and the combined defections due to DADT and
DREAM will likely sink both provisions. The Senate's work on both
DADT and DREAM, both priorities of the President and the
Congressional majority, will be complicated should DREAM be taken
up through the military appropriations bill. While the Senate
could, as Majority Leader Reid has stated, take up DREAM as a
stand-alone on the Senate floor, House passage of the Haitian
Orphan bill would simplify the Senate's work.


Next, lets look at the votes, and begin with the votes in the
House: With House Democrats still enjoying a large majority and
with Speaker Pelosi's proven and superb whipping ability,
Democrats have the power to pass virtually any bill in the House.
They may have to compromise to ensure passage, and perhaps
compromise a lot, but the the House Democratic leadership
possesses the wherewithal to ensure passage of DREAM. Failure to
ensure passage can only be interpreted as a deliberate decision
by the House Democratic leadership to abandon immigrants. If the
House does not pass DREAM now, Democrats will cede the
immigration issue entirely to the Republicans in the next
Congress, who will cast it as one of internal enforcement and
border security. To retain credibility on immigration, House
Democrats need to show some results, or at least an attempt to
obtain results. So far the historic House majority in the 111th
Congress has produced nothing on immigration - not even hot air.
If Democrats expect this to be a winning strategy, they are
conceding the immigrant vote to the Republicans, as witnessed by
the 7 new Hispanic Republicans who will join the 112th Congress.


Finally, lets look at the big issue (and in some sense the only
issue): Are there 60 votes in the Senate to pass DREAM? Even
though Republican Sen. Lugar is DREAM's co-sponsor and steadfast
supporter, there are likely to be several Democratic defections
in the Senate and votes of at least five Republican Senators will
be needed to pass this bill. The best place to see the list of
crucial Senators for the DREAM vote is from the anti-
immigrationists' whip count,
http://www.numbersusa.com/content/nusablog/beckr/november-23-2010/most-undecideds-should-break-against-dream-amnesty-bill-modification
here they are:


Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), Byron Dorgan (D-North Dakota), Lisa
Murkowski (R-Alaska), Sam Brownback (R-Kansas), Mary Landrieu (D-
Louisiana), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Debbie Stabenow (D-
Michigan), Claire McCaskill (D-Missouri), Max Baucus (D-Montana),
Ben Nelson (D-Nebraska), Kay Hagan (R-North Carolina),  Kent
Conrad (D-North Dakota), Lindsay Graham (R-South Carolina), and
Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia)


The battle for DREAM will set the tone for all immigration
battles over the next Congress and perhaps beyond. If DREAM is
enacted now, there will be a chance to get modest immigration
benefits acceptable to some Republicans in the 112th Congress
such as more EB numbers, nurse relief, more H1B numbers, etc.
Failure to pass DREAM now removes any incentive for the
Republicans to co-operate with the Democrats on passing any
immigration benefits, since the steps of a million immigrant
students marching towards citizenship would be silenced by
failure. Not only would the incoming House Republican majority be
emboldened to jettison any immigration benefits by DREAM's
failure, the bogeyman of no immigration benefits post 9/11 will
not have been exorcised. We urge you to email and fax and call
the Senators in the list above and get as many other people as
you can to do the same.


2. Article: The Dust Begins To Settle On The Republican Win Of
Control Of The House And Its Deep Cut Into the Democratic
Majority In The Senate by Micheal E. Hill
http://www.ilw.com/articles/2010,1124-hill.shtm


3. Article: The Fight Book: Chapter I-H1B: Part G, H, I by Rami
Fakhoury
http://www.ilw.com/articles/2010,1124-fakhoury.shtm


4. Article: Dispelling DREAM Act Myths by Mary Giovagnoli et. al
for the Immigration Policy Center
http://www.ilw.com/articles/2010,1124-giovagnoli.shtm


5. News: USCIS Issues Memo On Response To Ombudsman's 2010 Annual
Report
http://www.ilw.com/immigrationdaily/news/2010,1124-mayorkas.pdf


6. News: DHS Reports On Estimates Of Legal Permanent Resident
Population In 2009
http://www.ilw.com/immigrationdaily/news/2010,1124-population.pdf


7. Focus: The Consular Posts Book


The Table of Contents for "The Consular Posts Book" is as
follows:
PART I. MAJOR CONSULAR POSTS
A chapter each on - Argentina - Buenos Aires; Armenia - Yerevan;
Australia - Sydney; Brazil - Sao Paulo; Canada -Toronto; China -
Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai; Colombia - Bogota; France -
Paris; Germany - Frankfurt, and Munich; Haiti - Port au Prince;
India - Chennai, Kolkata, Mumbai, and New Delhi; Jamaica -
Kingston; Nigeria - Lagos; Philippines - Manila; Taiwan -
Taipei; Trinidad and Tobago - Port of Spain; United Kingdom -
London; Vietnam - Ho Chi Minh City.
PART II. THEORY AND PRACTICE
Chapter 1: Introduction
Chapter 2: New Attorney Vulnerabilities in International Practice
Chapter 3: Trade and Immigration Tightening? NAFTA, WTO, GATS
Soup to Nuts
Chapter 4: Tips for Avoiding B-1/B-2 Visa Denials and Correcting
other Refusal Issues with the Consul
Chapter 5: The Visa Waiver Program (VWP): Not As Simple and Easy
As It Looks
Chapter 6:  Non-Immigrant Classes and Their U.S. Tax Obligations
Chapter 7:  E-1/E-2 Treaty Traders and Treaty Investors
Chapter 8: The Consular Role in L-1 Blanket Petitions
Chapter 9: H-1B "Dependent Employees":  From Labeling to
Lawbreaking
Chapter 10: Temporary Assignment of H-1B Employees to Client Work
Sites
Chapter 11: State Department Name-Checks and Security Advisory
Opinions (SAOs)
Chapter 12: ICE Data-Mining and Federal Benefits Fraud Task
Forces - Send In the Marines: Best Practices to Survive Audits
and Task Forces
Chapter 13: What to do if Your Client's Visa is Denied: Visa
Office Advisory Opinions
Chapter 14: A Template for Attorney Risk-Assessment
PART III. THE CONSULAR POSTS RESOURCES ON CD-ROM
For contributor bios, more info, and to order, please see:
http://www.ilw.com/books/ConsularPosts.shtm. Or for fax, please
see: http://www.ilw.com/books/ConsularPosts.pdf


8. Headline: Sen. Sessions authored DREAM Act opposition alert
http://ow.ly/3f4xV
9. Headline: Lambert to introduce Arizona-style immigration
legislation for Colorado http://ow.ly/3f3zA
10. Headline: Marine's mom appeals to Senate on immigration fix
http://ow.ly/3f2qh
11. Headline: Putting a Human Face on the Immigration Debate
http://ow.ly/3f2lx
12. Headline: Get your ad in ten thousand pages! Improve search
engine ranking, increased name recognition and referrals. Sign up
at http://ow.ly/31GA2
13. Headline: CHC Divided on Immigration Reform Strategy
http://ow.ly/3eVNN
14. Headline: Push in Iowa and California For Arizona-Style
Immigration Laws http://ow.ly/3eToU
15. Headline: Steve King Lays Out Plan To Abolish Birthright
Citizenship http://ow.ly/3eT8i
16. Headline: Collin Powell and the Pentagon support the
DREAMAct. Now it's Congress' turn! http://ow.ly/3exzJ
17. Headline: FL immigration advocates staged protest for
dreamact at the entrance of the Krome detention center
http://ow.ly/3evx9 @george_lemieux
18. Headline: H-1B Book includes H-1B Step By Step, Advanced H-1B
Issues and essential memoranda. Get your copy at
http://ow.ly/31FD5
19. Headline: Group of UTPA students to stage hunger strike in
support of 'Dream Act' http://ow.ly/3evsa @kaybaileyhutch


To submit an Article or a news item to Immigration Daily, write
to mailto:editor@ilw.com. Follow ILW.COM on Twitter:
http://www.twitter.com/ilwcom
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To place a classifieds ad in Immigration Daily, see here
http://www.ilw.com/corporate/advertise_on_ilw.shtm
_________________________________________________________________
ReadersWrite


1. ReadersWrite: Yesterday's Discussion
http://blogs.ilw.com/immigrationdaily/2010/11/23_children_are_our_future.html#comments


2. ReadersWrite: Today's Discussion
http://blogs.ilw.com/immigrationdaily/2010/11/24_chamber_vehicle_and_vote.html#comments


To submit an Article for consideration, write to
mailto:editor@ilw.com
_________________________________________________________________
ComingsNGoings


ComingsNGoings: Immigration Event November 30, Washington, DC -
The Migration Policy Institute is pleased to present "Diasporas:
New Partners in Global Development Policy." Speakers include
Thomas Debass, Kathleen Newland, Pradeep Ramamurthy, and Karen
Turner. For more information, see
http://my.migrationpolicy.org/p/salsa/event/common/public/?event_KEY=28905.


Readers can share professional announcements (up to 100-words at
no charge), email: mailto:editor@ilw.com.
_________________________________________________________________
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Comments

  1. Roger Algase's Avatar
    ID's elaborate speculations about the possible passage of the DREAM Act in the lame duck session of Congress depend on what I would call the "Two C's" - Courage on the part of the Democrats and Cooperation by at least a token number of Republicans.

    Based on experience over the last two years and the current political realities in America, with the immigration debate driven primarily by Fox News supporters and other assorted far right extremists, I would estimate the chances of either of these "Two C's" appearing at close to zero.

    Far more likely than passage, or even introduction. of the DREAM Act in the lame duck Congress is the likelihood that the new, Republican-controlled House will quickly attempt to nullify the 14th Amendment's grant of birthright citizenship, while also passing something akin to HR 4437 in the last Republican-controlled House. Because of the draconian criminal penalties this would entail for even the most minor or technical immigration violations, it would amount to a virtual immigration moratorium.

    I see very dark days ahead for immigration because the Republicans' decision to put exploiting and inflaming racial tensions at, or close to, the center of their electoral strategy. The battle for immigrants and immigration advocates during the next two years and beyond will be to preserve the main features of the cumbersome, inequitable and grossly defective system we have now.

    Even this will be a major undertaking. I would like to see ID devote more emphasis to this grim reality, rather than keeping its head in the clouds pursuing a nearly impossible DREAM, which even if enacted, will in all probability have its funding cut off and repeal legislation immediately introduced in the Republican-controlled House right after the New Year.

    Of course, I hope I am wrong, and if this comment wins the prize for the worst prediction of 2010 I will be more than delighted. But putting Pollyanna in charge of analyzing and forecasting immigration developments, as ID appears to be doing, is helpful to no one.
  2. Roger Algase's Avatar
    Correction: In the fourth paragraph of my comment, I meant to write "because of the Republicans' decision".
  3. Sam's Avatar
    @ Mr. Algase:

    Indeed, dark days lie ahead for immigration in the 112th Congress, at least such may be reasonably forecasted. However, perhaps there will be a silver lining, as in getting a few EB-immigration relief measures in the coming 2 years. It is our opinion that even possibilities for a silver lining may evaporate if DREAM is defeated. Given that the Democratic leadership in both chambers appears to be ready to try, the least we can do is to put ourselves into the effort too. We encourage everyone concerned about immigration to call their Senators and urge the Senate to get behind DREAM.
  4. Roger Algase's Avatar
    Yes, of course we should support the DREAM Act. But how far we have come down as a pro-immigration community when this small gesture of reason and humanity, which would only affect a limited number of people and has a very slim chance of passage an any event, is the best we can hope for.

    Only three or four years ago, legalization for millions of unauthorized people seemed like a real possibility, along with changes in the legal immigration system that would have made it more equitable and effective for millions of skilled workers, people reuniting with their families and refugees. All this has now gone by the boards because of the ascendancy of the racist, big-business controlled, corporate money driven far right that the rest of us have been so ineffective in speaking out or taking effective action against.

    Now the issue is, instead, whether millions of American children will be deprived of their citizenship and whether our borders will be shut completely. If we get so tied up in saving a single tree that we let the rest of the forest burn down, our entire immigration system will continue its headlong and precipitous change from a dream of hope into a nightmare of hatred and prejudice. We are already seeing this Arizona and other states. With the incoming new Congress, we can soon expect to see it on the federal level as well.

    The DREAM Act, if it passes, will be all very well. But we should not delude ourselves into thinking that it will have much effect one way or the other on the real problem facing immigration in America, which is how to stop the tide of bigotry, scapegoating and racism from washing away our entire system.
  5. Jim Roberts's Avatar
    The posts of R. Algase of Nov. 24th were identifiable as to author even
    before the name appeared at the bottom with the familiar use of false
    name-calling and ridicule posing as intellectual thought. RA has never
    understood or chooses to ignore that millions of rational persons simply
    have a different opinion as to the numbers that should enter our land.
    These are not "racists", "Nazis", "KKK", or "ravings of extreme white
    supremacists crackpots". RA also falsely portrays the 14th Amd. as a
    "guarantee" of cheapened birthright citizenship by illegals when born
    here. The facts are to be found in the following article links
    including that the 14th Amd. is bound by the "subject to the
    jurisdiction thereof" clause of which it would be reasonable to assume
    should not include opportunistic illegals who have recently violated our
    entry laws in crossing our borders. The Dream Act is simply another
    poorly disguised sham amnesty for Harry Reid and others to pander to
    some Hispanics who voted for them. Rather than rewarding illegal
    activities (which only encourages more illegal entry), why aren't they
    introducing a bill to stop the anchor baby fraud which would help US
    stabilize the harmful, high numbers that we can no longer sustain as in
    times past.

    Jackpot Anchor Babies: Runaway Fraud on American Citizens! Frosty
    Wooldridge -- "Jackpot Anchor Babies: Runaway Fraud on American
    Citizens"
    http://www.newswithviews.com/Wooldridge/frosty546.htm


    VDARE.com: 09/30/10 - Why Birthright Citizenship Matters
    http://www.vdare.com/thom/100930_birthright_citizenship.htm


    Subject: A BETTER LIFE FOR WHO !!
    Frosty Wooldridge -- They Come to America for a Better Life: No End to
    the Line:
    http://www.newswithviews.com/Wooldridge/frosty611.htm


    Subject: DREAM ACT DANGERS!
    Frosty Wooldridge -- The Tremendous Dangers of the Dream Act:
    http://www.newswithviews.com/Wooldridge/frosty612.htm

  6. Joe Whalen's Avatar
    In keeping with the DREAM Act theme still so prevalent, I wanted to point out a certain bit of nonsense about one case. The San Francisco student "Steve" Li was born in Peru and did not come to the U.S. until he was 11. That means his parents seem to have been "firmly resettled" in Peru for around 12 years or more (that fact, of exactly how long they were in Peru, is never clearly stated). The parents claimed asylum in the U.S., this would probably have been when "Steve" was 12 (you know, within one year of arrival)--8 years ago. They sought asylum because of China's one-child policy. Nowhere in the media have I seen anything about "Steve's" brothers and sisters. Did Peru and the U.S. also adopt a one child policy when I wasn't looking? [I'm # 7 out of 8, myself.] I hate one-sided reporting no matter the author's "good intentions", I'd rather have all the facts and make up my own mind.
  7. Joe Whalen's Avatar
    In keeping with the DREAM Act theme still so prevalent, I wanted to point out a certain bit of nonsense about one case. The San Francisco student "Steve" Li was born in Peru and did not come to the U.S. until he was 11. That means his parents seem to have been "firmly resettled" in Peru for around 12 years or more (that fact, of exactly how long they were in Peru, is never clearly stated). The parents claimed asylum in the U.S., this would probably have been when "Steve" was 12 (you know, within one year of arrival)--8 years ago. They sought asylum because of China's one-child policy. Nowhere in the media have I seen anything about "Steve's" brothers and sisters. Did Peru and the U.S. also adopt a one child policy when I wasn't looking? [I'm # 7 out of 8, myself.] I hate one-sided reporting no matter the author's "good intentions", I'd rather have all the facts and make up my own mind.
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