I've had this little idea floating around for the last few months, but dared not reveal it until McCain locked up the nomination. I think you'll understand why when you read further.
John McCain is still supporting comprehensive immigration reform and just recently told Tim Russert of NBC that he believes the bill bearing his name was correct two years ago and he would vote for it if he had the opportunity today. I believe him.
Let's just suppose Majority Leader Harry Reid and Speaker Nancy Pelosi decided to bring back the 2006 version of the comprehensive immigration reform bill - the good one - and schedule it for, let's say, a good several weeks of very public debate this spring or summer in each House. Do you think the GOP is going to allow their rank and file members to attack their nominee day in day out over the immigration issue? If they do, the results could be disastrous as McCain will be going around the country trying to unite a very fractured party that is already pretty suspicious of his conservative bona fides. Can you imagine one Republican after another having to come to the microphone to denounce the McCain-Kennedy bill (and that's what Reid and Pelosi need to call it every chance they get)? And then McCain being dogged by reporters asking about it multiple times each day?
The Democrats are fretting today about continuing their internal fighting all the way to the convention and McCain having a basically free pass to go out and rally support. But throwing the immigration "grenade" and stirring up the immigration storm in the GOP may make the Democrats bickering look pretty tame.
So how might the grown ups in the GOP prevent this nightmare scenario from playing out? I think what you might see is a sudden willingness to work a deal quickly and behind the scenes and largely on the Democrats' terms. Aside from protecting their nominee, some of the GOP leaders are probably starting to ask the question of why McCain was able to get the nomination if the anti-immigration issue was so potent. Maybe Republicans are safer on this issue than they thought and don't have to worry quite so much about taking a moderate immigration position.
While the Democrats might have been timid about this issue given how things went last summer when it looked like they could be seriously hurt, a few months is an eternity in politics. Bringing back immigration reform would have virtually no drawbacks now and could reap major rewards, both political (if McCain is seriously damaged or distracted) and substantive (if immigration reform actually passed).
Just wanted to throw that out there....
[UPDATE: It also occurs to me that McCain will be in a pickle if he tries to nuance or change his position and talk about "enforcement first" since he now has to convince Hispanic voters not to abandon the GOP as polls are suggesting they are doing in droves].
Very, Very Interesting Point, well lets see on how they make their move.
Posted by: Ed | February 12, 2008 at 02:52 AM
I agree with that the xtreme right of the Republican party has tried to make it an issue of you either agree with us on everything or you are not considered a republican. Sort of like when people opposed Bush and the war in IRAQ they were caqlled un-patriotic(remeber the Dixie chics).
Posted by: Another voice | February 08, 2008 at 10:35 AM
"Conservatives are questioning their loyalty to the Republican party."
There are conservatives, and there are those who call themselves conservatives. If someone is driven mostly by their bigotry, like the people fervently against gay marriage or immigration, I feel it is about time they belong on the outskirts of the political spectrum.
Posted by: Legal and no longer waiting | February 08, 2008 at 09:43 AM
Roy, sorry it sounded like I did not give you credit - in fact, I did second your opinion, and I did second AV's conclusion from your opinion. I am very glad we agree on something.
Posted by: Legal and no longer waiting | February 08, 2008 at 09:25 AM
"That is a monumentally important development and if you choose to assume the the politics is exactly as it was before, you're living in dreamland."
It is difficult for some people to snap out of their delusion!
Posted by: George Chell | February 07, 2008 at 09:34 PM
"That is a monumentally important development and if you choose to assume the the politics is exactly as it was before,"
Something fundamental certainly has changed. Conservatives are questioning their loyalty to the Republican party. My guess is that an independent (maybe two) will also emerge.
This split helps Obama (assuming he is the nominee).
Posted by: R. Lawson | February 07, 2008 at 07:38 PM
Bob- Let's not kid a kidder. I've been to your blog and you're hardly neutral here. I'm about to write my advice to John McCain and the Republicans on how to respond, though the Dems clearly have the advantage.
But I tell you as well as others here that you're SOOOOOO 2007. The conventional wisdom was that immigration is a dangerous issue for people who show moderation on the issue and that being a hardliner would be THE wedge issue of this election year. One by one, GOP voters have been rejecting candidates who were hardliners - Fred Ford, Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, Mitt Romney. And the Republican who is by far the most progressive in the entire Senate is suddenly the nominee. That is a monumentally important development and if you choose to assume the the politics is exactly as it was before, you're living in dreamland.
Posted by: Greg Siskind | February 07, 2008 at 07:09 PM
""Trust me, not a subject they want to debate this year (either party)."
Let me second AV - exactly, both side DO NOT want to debate immigration [with the ignorant public]. "
Legal and Waiting - it was actually me who said that. I hope that doesn't change your opinion ;-)
Posted by: R. Lawson | February 07, 2008 at 05:58 PM
And here I thought that you had a serious interest in immigration reform instead of being just another political hack who wants to bring up an issue with no chance of passage purely for a partisan purpose.
Besides, it wouldn't work. The bill won't have McCain's name on it because someone else is going to have to reintroduce it. And which Republican do you think is about to attach his name to it in an election year? It will be a Democratic-sponsored bill that McCain will deftly avoid and would actually serve to be the best base unifier the GOP could have hoped for.
And which Senate Democrats up for reelection want that battle before November? Mark Pryor? Not while Huckabee still has time to jump in to that race complete with a presidential race infrastructure. Mary Landrieu? Right. And what a great way for Republicans Wayne Allard and Norm Coleman to shore up their base.
Harry Reid won't dare jump on that grenade just because there's a remote chance that it could help the Democrats' presidential nominee. There is only one thing that Reid cares about this election year: keeping 51 Senate seats in Democratic hands.
Posted by: Bob K | February 07, 2008 at 05:33 PM
McCain's recent mantra has been to "secure the borders first", and then do CIR. I doubt securing the borders will ever happen in this country, and surely it won't happen before the elections. So I do not see any chance for CIR before the election. If democrats bring it on, there will be massive outcry by conservatives and I cannot imagine McCain speaking against them now.
Posted by: hmm | February 07, 2008 at 05:02 PM
actually bringing that bill now will be good.
there will be more pressure from current president to get it
passed. also antiimmigrant candidates are gone with the wind.
republicans have two choices, do it now with diluted immigration bill or wait till next year when democrats will implemented it in full.
If I was there I would have taken the first one.:)
Posted by: john | February 07, 2008 at 04:08 PM
"Trust me, not a subject they want to debate this year (either party)."
Let me second AV - exactly, both side DO NOT want to debate immigration [with the ignorant public]. They know their solution, they agree on it, and they want it done, finished, and out of the way before the campaign gets serious. They don't even have to vote on it - they can be out campaigning - their supporters can do it.
If they get another CIR done, both sides can put it on their resume as an achievement and move on.
Posted by: Legal and no longer waiting | February 07, 2008 at 04:00 PM
"The point is that it probably doesn't need to pass to do the damage the Dems will want. But it has enough of a chance of passing, that it's certainly worth a shot."
Is it really worth the risk of loosing the possibly of Senate pick ups in Colorado where Udall is at least running even or for that matter in New Hampshire where Shaheen and Sununu are also running even? The biggest Dem fear is that if the Dems bring it up they will call it the Reid-Kennedy bill not the McCain bill. That is why I think Harry Reid will not bring up any immigratiob bill, illegal or otherwise, this year.
Posted by: George Chell | February 07, 2008 at 03:53 PM
"I would not stereotype all independents and put them on this camp."
I was referring to the racists and xenophobes. Independents are the least racist people in this country. I am one of them.
Posted by: George Chell | February 07, 2008 at 03:47 PM
"But, then these groups oppose all forms of immigration. Just read some of the attachments I have sent. Frosty Woolridge opposes all immigration, or at least non-white immigration."
I would not stereotype all independents and put them on this camp.
Posted by: Another Voice | February 07, 2008 at 03:42 PM
Hmm's posting seem interesting since McCain has to unify the far right of the republican party we'll see if they manage to back him up on his Immigration position enough to risk minority support.
Posted by: Another Voice | February 07, 2008 at 03:39 PM
I still think that the Democrats will not give Bush anything for his legacy specially Immigration reform.
The cuban vote will go to McCain in FLA but the rest of the Hispanic vote out west and northeast that is another story against Obama or Hillary.
I like the theory Greg I guess unless the dems see a tight race against McCain, if the democratic nominee is too bruised up from the primary, I think it will be hard for this congress to take on such huge thing, but I am with you there.
Posted by: Another Voice | February 07, 2008 at 03:37 PM
>>The only way I think that this has a realistic chance of passing is a McCain Presidency and 56-57 Senate Democrats and a gain of 10-12 seats in the House. Then if it does not pass in 2009 it will pass in 2011 when under a possible McCain Presidency, the Dems will have a 60+ majority in the Senate<<
The point is that it probably doesn't need to pass to do the damage the Dems will want. But it has enough of a chance of passing, that it's certainly worth a shot.
Posted by: Greg Siskind | February 07, 2008 at 03:30 PM
"Hmm.. Now you see why this is a disaster for the GOP. If McCain abandons his prior positions, he'll alienate the crucial Hispanic vote. If he sticks to them, he'll stir up a major fight within the party. And the Democrats will call him a flip flopper even as he tries to portray himself as sticking to his principles."
The only way I think that this has a realistic chance of passing is a McCain Presidency and 56-57 Senate Democrats and a gain of 10-12 seats in the House. Then if it does not pass in 2009 it will pass in 2011 when under a possible McCain Presidency, the Dems will have a 60+ majority in the Senate.
Posted by: George Chell | February 07, 2008 at 03:27 PM
"Buy American"
Depends on what you call American. If you mean American corporations in this country but most of the jobs are abroad, no. By, Toyota, Honda and Volkswagen. More American than Ford and GM.
Posted by: George Chell | February 07, 2008 at 03:25 PM
Hmm.. Now you see why this is a disaster for the GOP. If McCain abandons his prior positions, he'll alienate the crucial Hispanic vote. If he sticks to them, he'll stir up a major fight within the party. And the Democrats will call him a flip flopper even as he tries to portray himself as sticking to his principles.
Posted by: Greg Siskind | February 07, 2008 at 03:23 PM
More big news - the stimulus package just passed. In short, it is $600 per individual, $1200 per couple, plus $300 per child under 17. Checks to come in May.
I wonder if we avoid a protracted recession or not...I would have preferred an investment in infrastructure and not more wreckless spending. But, this will probably be a nice boost to the consumer side of the economy. Buy American ;-)
Posted by: R. Lawson | February 07, 2008 at 03:22 PM
To George: Independents are well, independent. They hold both views on the matter. The question is which group is the largest.
To Greg: "They won Florida for him and he needs them to support him in big numbers in the fall. "
Are you talking about Cuban Americans or other hispanics (not of Cuban heritage)? Cubans have traditionally leaned Republican. Other hispanics seem to, in large numbers, lean Democrat.
Posted by: R. Lawson | February 07, 2008 at 03:13 PM
Here is the full quote of what Mccain said during the recent debate in Reagan Library. He essentially said would NOT vote for his bill today.
"HOOK: Senator McCain, let me just take the issue to you, because you obviously have been very involved in it. During this campaign, you, like your rivals, have been putting the first priority, heaviest emphasis on border security. But your original immigration proposal back in 2006 was much broader and included a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants who were already here.
What I'm wondering is -- and you seem to be downplaying that part. At this point, if your original proposal came to a vote on the Senate floor, would you vote for it?
MCCAIN: It won't. It won't. That's why we went through the debate...
HOOK: But if it did?
MCCAIN: No, it would not, because we know what the situation is today. The people want the border secured first. And so to say that that would come to the floor of the Senate -- it won't. We went through various amendments which prevented that ever -- that proposal.
But, look, we're all in agreement as to what we need to do. Everybody knows it. We can fight some more about it, about who wanted this or who wanted that. But the fact is, we all know the American people want the border secured first.
MCCAIN: We will secure the borders first when I am president of the United States. I know how to do that. I come from a border state, where we know about building walls, and vehicle barriers, and sensors, and all of the things necessary.
I will have the border state governors certify the borders are secured. And then we will move onto the other aspects of this issue, probably as importantly as tamper-proof biometric documents, which then, unless an employer hires someone with those documents, that employer will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. And that will cause a lot of people to leave voluntarily.
There's 2 million people who are here who have committed crimes. They have to be rounded up and deported.
And we're all basically in agreement there are humanitarian situations. It varies with how long they've been here, et cetera, et cetera.
We are all committed to carrying out the mandate of the American people, which is a national security issue, which is securing the borders. That was part of the original proposal, but the American people didn't trust or have confidence in us that we would do it.
So we now know we have to secure the borders first, and that is what needs to be done. That's what I'll do as president of the United States.
COOPER: So I just want to confirm that you would not vote for your bill as it originally was?
MCCAIN: My bill will not be voted on; it will not be voted on. I will sit and work with Democrats and Republicans and with all people. And we will have the principals securing the borders first.
And then, if you want me to go through the description all over again, I would be glad to. We will secure the borders first. That's the responsibility and the priority of the American people."
Posted by: hmm | February 07, 2008 at 03:13 PM
"Obama (or perhaps Hillary) and McCain will be fighting over those independent votes. That is going to be the most interesting part of the entire debate - which way they go. It is too early to predict which way those votes will go.
McCain will beat Hillary in the general, IMHO. But it will be a much closer race with McCain and Obama. I have no idea who will win that one - I hope Obama."
I am just taking issue with your point that independents want restrictions on immigration. Perhaps that is what they say. But, that is not what they are voting on..they had a clear choice..Romney and Thompson. If immigration was a major issue for independents they had a chance to vote for Romney and Thompson. But, they voted for McCain in SC, NH and elsewhere. In Florida, the Hispanics literally carried him to the finish line. Conservatives and even racists and xenophobes perhaps but not independents. But, then these groups oppose all forms of immigration. Just read some of the attachments I have sent. Frosty Woolridge opposes all immigration, or at least non-white immigration.
Posted by: George Chell | February 07, 2008 at 03:04 PM
"And on the legal immigration issues, I think at the end of the day there will be more H-1bs with some protections and much more restrictions on "body shops"."
They just need to lift the country quotas on employment based immigration. As far as H1-bs are concerned, either they lift the quotas or more jobs will go to immigrants in Australia and Singapore...
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/06/2155461.htm
Americans wont get those jobs with higher pay.
Posted by: George Chell | February 07, 2008 at 02:59 PM
"Independent vote? I dont think so. If they wanted restrictions on immigration they wont be voting in droves for Obama."
Obama (or perhaps Hillary) and McCain will be fighting over those independent votes. That is going to be the most interesting part of the entire debate - which way they go. It is too early to predict which way those votes will go.
McCain will beat Hillary in the general, IMHO. But it will be a much closer race with McCain and Obama. I have no idea who will win that one - I hope Obama.
Posted by: R. Lawson | February 07, 2008 at 02:56 PM
>>"I don't think it would help either party right now." I agree with you but I bet that both parties would just love for this thing to go away and start the new administration without this to deal with.<<
No,no,no. If there is one group that McCain has to thank for him being in the driver's seat, it's Hispanics. They won Florida for him and he needs them to support him in big numbers in the fall. If they don't vote for him in the same kind of numbers they voted for Bush, he's got a huge problem.
Posted by: Greg Siskind | February 07, 2008 at 02:55 PM
""I don't think it would help either party right now." I agree with you but I bet that both parties would just love for this thing to go away and start the new administration without this to deal with."
Frankly, I would too. We need to finally wrap this debate up and move on.
At the end of the day, there will be some sort of amnesty. We may call it something else and there may be some "trip to the back of the line" plus a fine, but that's what will happen. And there will be added security and workplace enforcements. The only question is when and how effective the final bill will be.
And on the legal immigration issues, I think at the end of the day there will be more H-1bs with some protections and much more restrictions on "body shops".
That said, I just don't think it is in the cards to be debated this year. We'll see, but I'm not holding my breath.
Posted by: R. Lawson | February 07, 2008 at 02:53 PM
"He is trying to get a lock on the conservative vote and the independent vote - two groups who want more restrictions on immigration."
Independent vote? I dont think so. If they wanted restrictions on immigration they wont be voting in droves for Obama.
Posted by: George Chell | February 07, 2008 at 02:50 PM
Look at this nutmeg from Colorado railing against both legal and illegal immigration. He thinks the Americans are brain dead.
http://www.borderfirereport.net/frosty-wooldridge/senator-john-mccain-and-brain-dead-american-voters.html
Perhaps Mr. Wooldridge, Americans dont want to pay $5/lb for tomatos or $10 per head of lettuce? May be you are a millionaire and you can afford to pay that, but many Americans are loosing their house and are bankrupt and cannot afford the price of tomato or lettuce as it is right now...
Posted by: George Chell | February 07, 2008 at 02:48 PM
"He is trying to get a lock on the conservative vote and the independent vote - two groups who want more restrictions on immigration."
People who align themselves with this idealogy are stuck with him anyway because they have no other choice Barak or Hillary are way more liberal on Immigration.
"I don't think it would help either party right now." I agree with you but I bet that both parties would just love for this thing to go away and start the new administration without this to deal with.
Posted by: Another voice | February 07, 2008 at 02:47 PM
They won't touch immigration with a 10 foot stick. Trust me, not a subject they want to debate this year (either party).
Also, if you had the debate now McCain would probably be less prone to anything considered amnesty and more conservative on immigration. He is trying to get a lock on the conservative vote and the independent vote - two groups who want more restrictions on immigration.
In short, I think your plan would backfire. I don't think it would help either party right now. Also, I don't think we should be having such an important debate during such a politically sensitive time. We need to have it at a time when the issue can be considered thoughtfully and not let partisan politics and national elections interfere.
Posted by: R. Lawson | February 07, 2008 at 02:29 PM
>>This is what Karl Rove would have done. But Looks like McCain is already trying to have it both ways on the issue. He will now say "BS(border security) first" and will vote no.<<
See my update to my post for why that is not so easy either.
Posted by: Greg Siskind | February 07, 2008 at 02:26 PM
More delusion...
http://vdare.com/guzzardi/080206_amnesty.htm
In the past this guy had complained about too many white men taking Asian mail order brides.
Posted by: George Chell | February 07, 2008 at 02:21 PM
This could also give McCain a chance to steal the minority(Hispanic, Asian, etc..) vote in the election or at least compete for it.
Posted by: Another voice | February 07, 2008 at 02:15 PM
We would also have to consider all of those Republican House and Senate members that are retiring, they could embrace this idea to give McCain a better chance and put this to sleep(Immigration) since they do not care about political price or they could just not do anything to be able to say they did not pass Amnesty on my watch. I like the theory is a good one!!!
Posted by: Another voice | February 07, 2008 at 02:13 PM
they can always offer to the add border security provisions that he wants and call his bluff on it...
better still Obama/Clinton can propose them and steal his thunder
Posted by: legal forever waiting forever | February 07, 2008 at 02:10 PM
This is what Karl Rove would have done. But Looks like McCain is already trying to have it both ways on the issue. He will now say "BS(border security) first" and will vote no.
Posted by: Rove | February 07, 2008 at 01:59 PM
This tactic would help the Democrats if the bill does indeed pass this year which is not a sure thing. If it does not pass and Obama or Clinton become President, the GOP would never let them pass any immigration bill and the House and Senate would return to GOP and the anti-immigration activists led by Sensenbrenner in 2010. I think the best thing to hope for is a McCain Presidency with 56-57 Democrats in the Senate and another 10-12 seat gain in the House. Then it would have a good chance of passing in 2009. If it still does not pass in 2009, the Dems will gain more seats in the Senate in 2010 and the legislation will pass in 2011.
Posted by: George Chell | February 07, 2008 at 01:59 PM