CHUCK TODD: HISPANICS ARE KEY TO AN OBAMA WIN

The media may be focusing on the turnout of African-Americans and young voters, but another group will also be critical, according to the Chuck Todd, NBC News' political head honcho. Todd sees Hispanics as the key to winning critical western states like Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. And Hispanics will also prove important in North Carolina, VIrginia and Florida.

Why has McCain had problems with America's Latino voters?:

As for McCain, despite his best efforts (as well as that of President Bush and Karl Rove), the Republican brand has been tainted, potential for the long-term, due to the negative tone of the immigration debate that took place on conservative talk radio and in the presidential primaries.

In fact, McCain's immigration stance was so damaging that it is what nearly derailed his candidacy in mid-2007, not Iraq as the campaign sometimes likes to claim.

McCain ended up backing off a bit on his immigration stance. And to many Hispanics, it may have looked like McCain chose his party over his convictions on the issue.

As for Hispanics' willingness to vote for African-Americans, this was about as tested of a premise as the so-called "Bradley effect." Too many analysts went with their gut or with one example in one big city, rather than truly examining whether there was prejudice between Hispanics and blacks.

Todd gives an actual target number for Obama supporters to watch. Any Hispanic voting percentage over 65% virtually assures Obama of a win in the western states trifecta of Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado. He's been hitting better than that target in national polls so the Democrats are presumably pleased.

But Hispanic voters need to go one step further than votng. They need to press the Obama campaign to commit to making immigraton reform a priority for the First 100 days agenda of an Obama White House. And they need to get this commitment BEFORE the election.

Comments

[USC]

"Kentucky and Mississippi are within the realm of the conceivable as well."

Thanks for the correction on Mississippi.

[USC]

"Missouri"

Oops... should have read Mississippi.

[Greg Siskind]

Sorry, I see now you mentioned Kentucky. Polling is nice and close there.

[Greg Siskind]

Kentucky and Mississippi are within the realm of the conceivable as well.

[USC]

"The projections for a 60 seat senate is not a done deal"

Nothing is *EVER* a done deal. I was involved in the Obama campaign but was told by the bigwigs to help the DSCC. The Democrats for sure will pickup Senate seats in Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, New Hampshire & Virginia (that's 57). The two that are leaning Democratic but are not yet a done deal are North Carolina & Minnesota (brings the total upto 59). We believe Chambliss' seat will be the 60th. If we are allowed to dream we think about Texas, Kentucky, Missouri & Maine.

[Another voice]

The projections for a 60 seat senate is not a done deal, 57 + 2 independents is the best case scenario that I have heard off. Either way they should be able to mustard the votes to get it done on the first 100 days. Its going to be about how they sell it to the public but if you get it done early enough people would have forgotten about it by the time the mid terms roll around.

[George Chell]

"As Karl Rove preached in 2006, the GOP cannot afford to start losing Hispanics by the margins they lose blacks."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27403090/

I recently received a video in the mail telling us how radical Islam is a threat to the western civilization and indeed a threat to Christianity. My question to these clowns was where were they during the immigration defeat and after 9/11..why did not they push for immigration reform by preaching unity among Christians..white or otherwise. The road to GOP destruction began on 9/12/2001 when Karl Rove abdicated his responsibilities. He should have immediately told Bush that he needed to push immigration reform as a matter of defending western civilization, particularly Christianity. He failed to do so. Instead he left white skin worshipping pagans such as Tom Tancredo, Dana Rohrbacher, Jeff Sessions, Bob DeMint and their white skin worshipping pagan backers at FAIR, CIS, Numbers USA take over the issue and of course Heather MacDonald and Rush Limbaugh. It initially helped..GOP won in 2002 and 2004, but after that they literally cratered. So will there be a CIR in the first 100 days? Given the economic and financial situation, most likely not. But, happen it will, sometime during 2009 or by early 2010.

[USC]

With the conviction of Stevens and the prospects a filibuster proof Democratic majority; CIR has moved closer to reality. On a personal note I will be able to post more frequently after November 4.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/washington/28stevens.html?hp