On October 30th, I predicted that President Obama would do a full point better in the popular vote than the aggregate poll numbers were showing because most polls were only surveying Latino voters in English. The few polls asking questions in Spanish (Latino Decisions being the most prominent) were telling a story that few in the mainstream media were reporting - that Latino voters polled in Spanish were not responding the same way as those polled only in English. My calculation was showing about a 10% difference with the President. I assumed that the Latino vote would be about 10% of the overall electorate. Which meant a one percent boost for the President.I followed PollTracker all year and on the day of the election, their aggregation of the major national polls showed the President would win by .7%.
While we still await a few votes to be counted in Florida, we now roughly know the final numbers.The President receive approximately 50% of the vote. Romney got approximately 48%, which was right on target.
Incidentally, Latino Decisions has posted the cross tabs for their final exit poll and they show that 83% of respondents who answered the questions in Spanish supported the President versus 70% of those who answered in English.